**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJustin Aguiar condannato per violenza sessuale prima del 2027?
Justin Aguiar condannato per violenza sessuale prima del 2027?
Sì
31% probabilità
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
31% probabilità
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,562Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,562Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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