**José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero remains in the early investigative phase of a corruption probe** centered on alleged influence peddling tied to the 2021 €53 million public bailout of airline Plus Ultra, with connections to opaque Venezuelan funds. Spain’s National Court judge formally placed the former prime minister under investigation in May 2026—the first such case for a modern Spanish head of government—and expanded the inquiry in June to include his daughters and secretary. Zapatero appeared before the court that month, asserted his innocence, and faced no passport restrictions or pretrial detention. The probe, which dates to 2024 international cooperation requests and involves Anti-Corruption prosecutors, has not produced formal charges, let alone a trial or conviction. Spanish judicial timelines for high-profile cases, combined with the presumption of innocence and standard appeals, make a prison sentence by the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution date highly improbable. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5% because the process is still at the pre-charge stage with no imminent court dates or evidentiary breakthroughs reported that would accelerate a final ruling.