Both Israel and Turkey have deepened a strategic rivalry through diplomatic rebukes, trade restrictions, airspace measures, and competition for influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, yet recent analyses highlight mutual recognition that direct military confrontation would impose prohibitive costs on each side. A military hotline established to manage air operations over Syria and statements framing the contest as non-kinetic underscore efforts to contain risks of accidental escalation. Traders appear to price in these deterrents and the absence of major military movements or official declarations of intent toward open conflict through the end of 2026, favoring continued proxy competition and alliance maneuvering over direct engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare Israele-Turchia prima del 2027?
Scontro militare Israele-Turchia prima del 2027?
Sì
14% probabilità
$323,519 Vol.
$323,519 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
14% probabilità
$323,519 Vol.
$323,519 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Both Israel and Turkey have deepened a strategic rivalry through diplomatic rebukes, trade restrictions, airspace measures, and competition for influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, yet recent analyses highlight mutual recognition that direct military confrontation would impose prohibitive costs on each side. A military hotline established to manage air operations over Syria and statements framing the contest as non-kinetic underscore efforts to contain risks of accidental escalation. Traders appear to price in these deterrents and the absence of major military movements or official declarations of intent toward open conflict through the end of 2026, favoring continued proxy competition and alliance maneuvering over direct engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$323,519Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Both Israel and Turkey have deepened a strategic rivalry through diplomatic rebukes, trade restrictions, airspace measures, and competition for influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, yet recent analyses highlight mutual recognition that direct military confrontation would impose prohibitive costs on each side. A military hotline established to manage air operations over Syria and statements framing the contest as non-kinetic underscore efforts to contain risks of accidental escalation. Traders appear to price in these deterrents and the absence of major military movements or official declarations of intent toward open conflict through the end of 2026, favoring continued proxy competition and alliance maneuvering over direct engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$323,519Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Both Israel and Turkey have deepened a strategic rivalry through diplomatic rebukes, trade restrictions, airspace measures, and competition for influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean, yet recent analyses highlight mutual recognition that direct military confrontation would impose prohibitive costs on each side. A military hotline established to manage air operations over Syria and statements framing the contest as non-kinetic underscore efforts to contain risks of accidental escalation. Traders appear to price in these deterrents and the absence of major military movements or official declarations of intent toward open conflict through the end of 2026, favoring continued proxy competition and alliance maneuvering over direct engagement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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