Oscar Isaac leads the market at 72% implied probability thanks to strong Emmy voter recognition for his layered turn as a country club manager in Netflix’s “Beef” Season 2, which earned multiple nominations and builds on the anthology’s prior success. Matthew Rhys sits at 20% as a two-time nominee this cycle, with his intense performance in “The Beast in Me” boosted by a rare dual lead nod alongside his comedy work in “Widow’s Bay,” though that split may dilute focus. Riz Ahmed’s prior win in the category and Riz Ahmed’s “Bait” campaign place him at 6.5%, while first-time nominees Charlie Hunnam (“Monster: The Ed Gein Story”) and Jason Bateman (“Black Rabbit”) trail at 3% and 2.5%. The September 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst for any late shifts in guild and academy sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEmmy 2026: Miglior attore protagonista in una serie o film a tiratura limitata o antologica
Emmy 2026: Miglior attore protagonista in una serie o film a tiratura limitata o antologica
Oscar Isaac – “Beef” 72%
Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” 20%
Riz Ahmed – “Bait” 7%
Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” 3.1%
$61,861 Vol.
$61,861 Vol.
14 set 2026
Oscar Isaac – “Beef”
72%
Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me”
20%
Riz Ahmed – “Bait”
7%
Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
3%
Jason Bateman – “Black Rabbit”
2%
Oscar Isaac – “Beef” 72%
Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” 20%
Riz Ahmed – “Bait” 7%
Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” 3.1%
$61,861 Vol.
$61,861 Vol.
14 set 2026
Oscar Isaac – “Beef”
$12,900 Vol.
72%
Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me”
$10,184 Vol.
20%
Riz Ahmed – “Bait”
$25,553 Vol.
7%
Charlie Hunnam – “Monster: The Ed Gein Story”
$2,402 Vol.
3%
Jason Bateman – “Black Rabbit”
$10,823 Vol.
2%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oscar Isaac leads the market at 72% implied probability thanks to strong Emmy voter recognition for his layered turn as a country club manager in Netflix’s “Beef” Season 2, which earned multiple nominations and builds on the anthology’s prior success. Matthew Rhys sits at 20% as a two-time nominee this cycle, with his intense performance in “The Beast in Me” boosted by a rare dual lead nod alongside his comedy work in “Widow’s Bay,” though that split may dilute focus. Riz Ahmed’s prior win in the category and Riz Ahmed’s “Bait” campaign place him at 6.5%, while first-time nominees Charlie Hunnam (“Monster: The Ed Gein Story”) and Jason Bateman (“Black Rabbit”) trail at 3% and 2.5%. The September 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst for any late shifts in guild and academy sentiment.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 10, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Volume
$61,861Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oscar Isaac leads the market at 72% implied probability thanks to strong Emmy voter recognition for his layered turn as a country club manager in Netflix’s “Beef” Season 2, which earned multiple nominations and builds on the anthology’s prior success. Matthew Rhys sits at 20% as a two-time nominee this cycle, with his intense performance in “The Beast in Me” boosted by a rare dual lead nod alongside his comedy work in “Widow’s Bay,” though that split may dilute focus. Riz Ahmed’s prior win in the category and Riz Ahmed’s “Bait” campaign place him at 6.5%, while first-time nominees Charlie Hunnam (“Monster: The Ed Gein Story”) and Jason Bateman (“Black Rabbit”) trail at 3% and 2.5%. The September 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst for any late shifts in guild and academy sentiment.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$61,861Data di fine
14 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 10, 2026, 12:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Oscar Isaac leads the market at 72% implied probability thanks to strong Emmy voter recognition for his layered turn as a country club manager in Netflix’s “Beef” Season 2, which earned multiple nominations and builds on the anthology’s prior success. Matthew Rhys sits at 20% as a two-time nominee this cycle, with his intense performance in “The Beast in Me” boosted by a rare dual lead nod alongside his comedy work in “Widow’s Bay,” though that split may dilute focus. Riz Ahmed’s prior win in the category and Riz Ahmed’s “Bait” campaign place him at 6.5%, while first-time nominees Charlie Hunnam (“Monster: The Ed Gein Story”) and Jason Bateman (“Black Rabbit”) trail at 3% and 2.5%. The September 14 ceremony remains the key catalyst for any late shifts in guild and academy sentiment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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