The heavily Democratic lean of California's 6th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its partisan balance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the June primary, former Republican-turned-independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a low-turnout contest, with both candidates securing roughly 23-24% of the vote amid a crowded field. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, citing the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area demographics. Kiley's no-party-preference status and caucus alignment with Republicans have not offset these structural factors. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm dynamics, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises in key suburbs could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$18,223 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$23,888 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 6th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its partisan balance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the June primary, former Republican-turned-independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a low-turnout contest, with both candidates securing roughly 23-24% of the vote amid a crowded field. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, citing the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area demographics. Kiley's no-party-preference status and caucus alignment with Republicans have not offset these structural factors. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm dynamics, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises in key suburbs could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$42,111Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of California's 6th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its partisan balance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the June primary, former Republican-turned-independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a low-turnout contest, with both candidates securing roughly 23-24% of the vote amid a crowded field. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, citing the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area demographics. Kiley's no-party-preference status and caucus alignment with Republicans have not offset these structural factors. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm dynamics, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises in key suburbs could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,111Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of California's 6th congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that shifted its partisan balance, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Following the June primary, former Republican-turned-independent incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan in a low-turnout contest, with both candidates securing roughly 23-24% of the vote amid a crowded field. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, citing the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area demographics. Kiley's no-party-preference status and caucus alignment with Republicans have not offset these structural factors. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm dynamics, unexpected candidate withdrawals, or turnout surprises in key suburbs could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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