The Bank of Mexico's unanimous holds at 6.50% in its June and August 2026 meetings have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 24 decision, with inflation data showing headline rates easing to 3.10% in mid-July while core inflation lingers near 4% amid upside risks from trade policy uncertainty, peso depreciation, and geopolitical factors. Banxico has revised its convergence timeline to the 3% target to the fourth quarter of 2027 and signaled that the current restrictive stance remains appropriate given the balance of risks and the absence of demand pressures. Analyst surveys reinforce this view, with the median forecast holding the benchmark rate steady through year-end. A sharper-than-expected inflation decline or material deterioration in growth could introduce downside pressure, though recent communications suggest limited scope for near-term shifts.