Traders assign a 96.2% probability against U.S. annexation of any territory in 2026 primarily because no treaty negotiations, congressional legislation, or executive proposals for formal incorporation have advanced toward Senate ratification or statutory approval. Current legislative priorities center on alliances, trade, and administration of existing territories rather than expansion. Early 2026 discussions involving Greenland produced diplomatic pushback from Denmark, Greenlandic leaders, and NATO partners, yielding security cooperation frameworks instead of sovereignty transfers. Constitutional requirements for congressional action, combined with international law constraints on unilateral acquisition, reinforce the consensus. Remaining scenarios that could shift outcomes before December 31 include an unforeseen bilateral agreement or sudden resolution of a long-standing claim through treaty, though both face substantial procedural and political hurdles.