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Politik·Demokrat

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

icon for Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?
Politik·Demokrat

Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?

32% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
32% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The early 2028 Democratic nomination field shows several male candidates, including governors Gavin Newsom and senators like Jon Ossoff, drawing strong support in polls and prediction markets alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Gretchen Whitmer’s May 2026 decision to rule out a bid has narrowed visible female options, while post-2024 reflections on Kamala Harris’s performance have prompted some party strategists and voters to prioritize perceived electability factors such as executive experience and swing-state records. With no formal declarations yet and primaries still distant, the fragmented field leaves room for shifts, but current positioning sustains trader consensus around a male nominee at 68% implied probability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$3,916
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The early 2028 Democratic nomination field shows several male candidates, including governors Gavin Newsom and senators like Jon Ossoff, drawing strong support in polls and prediction markets alongside Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Gretchen Whitmer’s May 2026 decision to rule out a bid has narrowed visible female options, while post-2024 reflections on Kamala Harris’s performance have prompted some party strategists and voters to prioritize perceived electability factors such as executive experience and swing-state records. With no formal declarations yet and primaries still distant, the fragmented field leaves room for shifts, but current positioning sustains trader consensus around a male nominee at 68% implied probability.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$3,916
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2028
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 32% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 32¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 32% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Feb 17, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" adalah 32% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 32% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the 2028 Democratic Presidential nominee be a woman?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.