US midterm elections occur every two years under fixed constitutional and statutory timelines, with the 2026 contests set for November 3. Trader consensus at 96.2% Yes reflects this entrenched schedule, the absence of active legislation or court rulings seeking postponement, and stable institutional control over election administration. Historical precedent shows midterms proceeding even amid crises, reinforcing the implied probability. Remaining uncertainty stems from hypothetical tail risks such as a declared national emergency, major security disruption, or unforeseen constitutional challenge that could prompt congressional action or executive delay within the resolution window.