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icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitik·Nuklir

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitik·Nuklir

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

11% peluang
Polymarket

$407,794 Vol.

11% peluang
Polymarket

$407,794 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$407,794
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$407,794
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

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Ya
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Ya

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 11% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 11¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 11% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $407.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" adalah 11% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 11% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.