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Politik·Senat

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

icon for Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Politik·Senat

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

$21,139 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026
Polymarket

$21,139 Vol.

Polymarket

Ohio (Special)

$590 Vol.

76%

Michigan

$519 Vol.

75%

Iowa

$766 Vol.

74%

Alaska

$354 Vol.

71%

Texas

$1,937 Vol.

69%

Maine

$228 Vol.

66%

New Hampshire

$1,001 Vol.

47%

Nebraska

$1,867 Vol.

45%

Georgia

$163 Vol.

34%

Florida (Special)

$977 Vol.

29%

North Carolina

$1,712 Vol.

28%

Minnesota

$5,497 Vol.

26%

New Mexico

$1,813 Vol.

11%

Montana

$1,257 Vol.

8%

Virginia

$897 Vol.

5%

Colorado

$1,562 Vol.

4%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests appear positioned for narrow margins due to a mix of open seats, midterm headwinds for the president's party, and battleground state dynamics. Cook Political Report currently rates four races as toss-ups and others as leans, with Michigan, Maine, and Georgia among those frequently cited in aggregates showing modest Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. Retirements by eleven incumbents, including several Republicans, have opened opportunities for stronger challengers in states where recent presidential results and turnout patterns favor close outcomes. August primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will clarify nominees and spending patterns, while broader factors such as economic indicators and legislative activity through the fall could shift voter sentiment in these contests ahead of the November 3 general election.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,139
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests appear positioned for narrow margins due to a mix of open seats, midterm headwinds for the president's party, and battleground state dynamics. Cook Political Report currently rates four races as toss-ups and others as leans, with Michigan, Maine, and Georgia among those frequently cited in aggregates showing modest Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling. Retirements by eleven incumbents, including several Republicans, have opened opportunities for stronger challengers in states where recent presidential results and turnout patterns favor close outcomes. August primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will clarify nominees and spending patterns, while broader factors such as economic indicators and legislative activity through the fall could shift voter sentiment in these contests ahead of the November 3 general election.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,139
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Terkait

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which Senate races will be within 5%?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 16 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Ohio (Special)" di 76%, diikuti oleh "Michigan" di 75%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 76¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 76% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" telah menghasilkan $21.1K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 29, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Which Senate races will be within 5%?," jelajahi 16 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" adalah "Ohio (Special)" di 76%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 76% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Michigan" di 75%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which Senate races will be within 5%?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.