**Liberal-National Coalition leads trader pricing at 78% for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, reflecting consistent polling leads over Labor.** Recent surveys, including DemosAU (55-45 two-party preferred) and Resolve, place the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51-57, driven by primary vote strengths around 27-32% versus Labor’s mid-20s. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has not reversed the trend, with the party facing an “it’s time” factor after more than a decade in office. One Nation’s primary vote surge (often 22-27%) fragments the right but channels preferences toward the Coalition, supporting its projected path to a lower-house majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Key issues cited in polling—cost of living, crime and justice reform, and state debt—have sustained opposition momentum under Jess Wilson. Markets price Labor at 19.5% and One Nation at just 2.1%, consistent with the Coalition’s structural advantages three months from polling day, though late-campaign shifts remain possible.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiVictoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Victoria Parliamentary Election Winner
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens 1.0%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
2%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens 1.0%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
Nov 28, 2026
Liberal–National
$6,390 Vol.
78%
Labor
$1,749 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,275 Vol.
2%
Greens
$212 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Liberal-National Coalition leads trader pricing at 78% for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, reflecting consistent polling leads over Labor.** Recent surveys, including DemosAU (55-45 two-party preferred) and Resolve, place the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51-57, driven by primary vote strengths around 27-32% versus Labor’s mid-20s. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has not reversed the trend, with the party facing an “it’s time” factor after more than a decade in office.
One Nation’s primary vote surge (often 22-27%) fragments the right but channels preferences toward the Coalition, supporting its projected path to a lower-house majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Key issues cited in polling—cost of living, crime and justice reform, and state debt—have sustained opposition momentum under Jess Wilson. Markets price Labor at 19.5% and One Nation at just 2.1%, consistent with the Coalition’s structural advantages three months from polling day, though late-campaign shifts remain possible.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volume
$10,625Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Liberal-National Coalition leads trader pricing at 78% for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, reflecting consistent polling leads over Labor.** Recent surveys, including DemosAU (55-45 two-party preferred) and Resolve, place the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51-57, driven by primary vote strengths around 27-32% versus Labor’s mid-20s. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has not reversed the trend, with the party facing an “it’s time” factor after more than a decade in office.
One Nation’s primary vote surge (often 22-27%) fragments the right but channels preferences toward the Coalition, supporting its projected path to a lower-house majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Key issues cited in polling—cost of living, crime and justice reform, and state debt—have sustained opposition momentum under Jess Wilson. Markets price Labor at 19.5% and One Nation at just 2.1%, consistent with the Coalition’s structural advantages three months from polling day, though late-campaign shifts remain possible.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volume
$10,625Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Liberal-National Coalition leads trader pricing at 78% for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election, reflecting consistent polling leads over Labor.** Recent surveys, including DemosAU (55-45 two-party preferred) and Resolve, place the Coalition ahead on two-party preferred margins of 51-57, driven by primary vote strengths around 27-32% versus Labor’s mid-20s. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll has not reversed the trend, with the party facing an “it’s time” factor after more than a decade in office. One Nation’s primary vote surge (often 22-27%) fragments the right but channels preferences toward the Coalition, supporting its projected path to a lower-house majority in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly. Key issues cited in polling—cost of living, crime and justice reform, and state debt—have sustained opposition momentum under Jess Wilson. Markets price Labor at 19.5% and One Nation at just 2.1%, consistent with the Coalition’s structural advantages three months from polling day, though late-campaign shifts remain possible.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan