Jess Wilson leads the market at 64.5% as leader of the Victorian Liberal opposition ahead of the 28 November 2026 state election, reflecting trader views on polling that shows the Coalition competitive or ahead on two-party preferred measures amid voter fatigue with Labor after more than a decade in office. Ben Carroll became Labor premier in late July 2026 following a caucus-driven leadership spill that replaced Jacinta Allan, prompting his immediate call for a royal commission into the construction sector and efforts to reset the government's image. Other listed figures, including cabinet ministers and minor-party candidates, trade at lower levels consistent with their current roles and limited public positioning for the premiership. Recent opinion polls indicate One Nation's rising regional support as an additional variable that could influence Coalition formation prospects if no party secures a clear majority.