UK officials have repeatedly stated that Falklands sovereignty is non-negotiable and rests solely with Britain, with islanders' right to self-determination paramount following their 2013 referendum. The Starmer government reaffirmed this position in April 2026 amid reports of potential US policy shifts, while rejecting any formal talks on transfer. No bilateral mechanism, parliamentary support, or diplomatic breakthrough exists that could produce an announcement by December 31, 2026. Argentina continues to raise the issue at the UN and bilaterally, yet UK policy shows no sign of change. Traders assign the outcome only a 4% probability because these structural barriers and consistent official statements leave almost no realistic path to resolution within the market window. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure could theoretically alter the stance, though both remain remote.