**Diplomatic relations between the UAE and Qatar have remained stable since their full restoration under the 2021 Al-Ula reconciliation framework, with embassies reopened in 2023 and ongoing high-level coordination.** Both countries participate as GCC members in joint economic and security initiatives, including recent cooperation committees and regional mediation efforts on issues such as Gaza ceasefires. Analyses from early 2026 describe the relationship as a managed “cold peace” marked by competitive regional influence rather than open confrontation or rupture triggers. No verified diplomatic incidents, official statements, or escalatory moves have emerged in 2025–2026 that would indicate severance. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 94.8% implied probability because structural incentives—shared Gulf security interests, economic interdependence, and the absence of new crises—continue to outweigh low-probability tail risks.