Saudi Arabia's firm insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, including East Jerusalem as capital, combined with domestic public opposition and perceptions of Israeli regional instability, has kept normalization off the table and sustains the 93% trader consensus against a breakthrough before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. The July 2026 U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement advanced without linkage to Israel, while Israeli coalition dynamics and ongoing Middle East conflicts have reinforced Riyadh's risk assessment over potential security or economic gains. Late diplomatic shifts, such as renewed U.S.-mediated talks or verifiable Palestinian progress, remain the primary scenarios that could still alter these implied probabilities.