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icon for Russia military action against EU country by...?
Dunia·NATO

Russia military action against EU country by...?

icon for Russia military action against EU country by...?
Dunia·NATO

Russia military action against EU country by...?

BARU

$26,470 Vol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$26,470 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$6,502 Vol.

2%

December 31

$19,969 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders including Poland’s Donald Tusk and France’s Emmanuel Macron have highlighted intelligence pointing to possible Russian drone or missile strikes on NATO territory in the coming months, potentially as limited provocations or false-flag operations to test Article 5 commitments. These warnings follow a summer surge in attributed hybrid incidents, such as the August drone event at Germany’s Leipzig airport and September airspace violations near Poland and Lithuania. NATO’s top military officials state the alliance sees no imminent conventional attack risk yet maintains detailed eastern-flank defense plans and readiness for escalation scenarios. Russian legislative elections and potential subsequent mobilization add near-term uncertainty, while Moscow continues operations focused on Ukraine without visible troop buildups against EU borders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.

An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.

The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,470
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 8:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders including Poland’s Donald Tusk and France’s Emmanuel Macron have highlighted intelligence pointing to possible Russian drone or missile strikes on NATO territory in the coming months, potentially as limited provocations or false-flag operations to test Article 5 commitments. These warnings follow a summer surge in attributed hybrid incidents, such as the August drone event at Germany’s Leipzig airport and September airspace violations near Poland and Lithuania. NATO’s top military officials state the alliance sees no imminent conventional attack risk yet maintains detailed eastern-flank defense plans and readiness for escalation scenarios. Russian legislative elections and potential subsequent mobilization add near-term uncertainty, while Moscow continues operations focused on Ukraine without visible troop buildups against EU borders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.

An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.

The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify. An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state. A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify. The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,470
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 8:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Russia military action against EU country by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31" di 19%, diikuti oleh "September 30" di 2%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 19¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Russia military action against EU country by...?" telah menghasilkan $26.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Russia military action against EU country by...?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Russia military action against EU country by...?" adalah "December 31" di 19%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "September 30" di 2%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Russia military action against EU country by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.