Pierre Poilievre retains strong internal party support as Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition following the 2025 election defeat. Delegates at the January 2026 Calgary convention delivered an 87.4% endorsement in the mandatory post-election leadership review required by party rules. No subsequent caucus revolt, constitutional mechanism, or organized challenge has emerged to force a contest before the December 31, 2026 market resolution date. Summer 2026 reports of private MP concerns and limited floor crossings have not produced viable alternatives or procedural openings. Traders price the 86.5% probability of continuity on this sustained grassroots backing and the absence of near-term catalysts for transition.