The razor-thin contest in Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations has produced a near-dead heat in partial counts, with No ahead by roughly 0.2 percentage points on the first 153,000 ballots. Pre-vote Gallup and Maskína surveys consistently showed the two sides separated by less than the margin of error, driven by competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty, living costs, and Arctic security amid external pressures. A Yes outcome would trigger talks that could begin by year-end but would require a later membership referendum, while a No result would shelve the process. This sustained closeness sustains elevated probabilities for sub-6% margins on either side and explains the balanced pricing across narrow victory brackets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYes <3% 34%
Yes 3–6% 23.6%
No 9–12% 20%
No 15%+ 20.0%
$14,504 Vol.
$14,504 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
18%
Yes 12–15%
15%
Yes 9–12%
6%
Yes 6–9%
17%
Yes 3–6%
18%
Yes <3%
20%
No <3%
46%
No 3–6%
-
No 6–9%
-
No 9–12%
20%
No 12–15%
25%
No 15%+
20%
Yes <3% 34%
Yes 3–6% 23.6%
No 9–12% 20%
No 15%+ 20.0%
$14,504 Vol.
$14,504 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$616 Vol.
18%
Yes 12–15%
$174 Vol.
15%
Yes 9–12%
$2,594 Vol.
6%
Yes 6–9%
$186 Vol.
17%
Yes 3–6%
$893 Vol.
18%
Yes <3%
$347 Vol.
20%
No <3%
$3,316 Vol.
46%
No 3–6%
$1,020 Vol.
-
No 6–9%
$289 Vol.
-
No 9–12%
$335 Vol.
20%
No 12–15%
$237 Vol.
25%
No 15%+
$4,497 Vol.
20%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin contest in Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations has produced a near-dead heat in partial counts, with No ahead by roughly 0.2 percentage points on the first 153,000 ballots. Pre-vote Gallup and Maskína surveys consistently showed the two sides separated by less than the margin of error, driven by competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty, living costs, and Arctic security amid external pressures. A Yes outcome would trigger talks that could begin by year-end but would require a later membership referendum, while a No result would shelve the process. This sustained closeness sustains elevated probabilities for sub-6% margins on either side and explains the balanced pricing across narrow victory brackets.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$14,504Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The razor-thin contest in Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations has produced a near-dead heat in partial counts, with No ahead by roughly 0.2 percentage points on the first 153,000 ballots. Pre-vote Gallup and Maskína surveys consistently showed the two sides separated by less than the margin of error, driven by competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty, living costs, and Arctic security amid external pressures. A Yes outcome would trigger talks that could begin by year-end but would require a later membership referendum, while a No result would shelve the process. This sustained closeness sustains elevated probabilities for sub-6% margins on either side and explains the balanced pricing across narrow victory brackets.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,504Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The razor-thin contest in Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations has produced a near-dead heat in partial counts, with No ahead by roughly 0.2 percentage points on the first 153,000 ballots. Pre-vote Gallup and Maskína surveys consistently showed the two sides separated by less than the margin of error, driven by competing concerns over fisheries sovereignty, living costs, and Arctic security amid external pressures. A Yes outcome would trigger talks that could begin by year-end but would require a later membership referendum, while a No result would shelve the process. This sustained closeness sustains elevated probabilities for sub-6% margins on either side and explains the balanced pricing across narrow victory brackets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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