**Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% as of early September 2026 reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply.** Recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and limiting downside in long-end rates despite some softer labor data. Markets price limited near-term Fed easing, with the policy rate held steady and potential hikes under discussion, while real yields remain elevated on growth expectations tied to AI investment and solid nominal activity. Upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and Treasury auctions that could shift term premium or rate-path expectations. Current levels sit well above year-ago readings near 4.9%, underscoring how fiscal and inflation dynamics continue to anchor longer-term yields.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
Dec 30, 2026
Below 5.20%
61%
Below 5.15%
60%
Below 5.10%
50%
Below 5.05%
50%
Below 5.00%
50%
Below 4.95%
50%
Below 4.90%
49%
Below 4.80%
48%
Below 4.60%
37%
$0.00 Vol.
Below 5.20%
$0 Vol.
61%
Below 5.15%
$0 Vol.
60%
Below 5.10%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 5.05%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 5.00%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.95%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.90%
$0 Vol.
49%
Below 4.80%
$0 Vol.
48%
Below 4.60%
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% as of early September 2026 reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply.** Recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and limiting downside in long-end rates despite some softer labor data. Markets price limited near-term Fed easing, with the policy rate held steady and potential hikes under discussion, while real yields remain elevated on growth expectations tied to AI investment and solid nominal activity. Upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and Treasury auctions that could shift term premium or rate-path expectations. Current levels sit well above year-ago readings near 4.9%, underscoring how fiscal and inflation dynamics continue to anchor longer-term yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).**Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% as of early September 2026 reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply.** Recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and limiting downside in long-end rates despite some softer labor data. Markets price limited near-term Fed easing, with the policy rate held steady and potential hikes under discussion, while real yields remain elevated on growth expectations tied to AI investment and solid nominal activity. Upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and Treasury auctions that could shift term premium or rate-path expectations. Current levels sit well above year-ago readings near 4.9%, underscoring how fiscal and inflation dynamics continue to anchor longer-term yields.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Elevated 30-year Treasury yields near 5.25% as of early September 2026 reflect persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, a hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, and elevated term premiums amid large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply.** Recent Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and limiting downside in long-end rates despite some softer labor data. Markets price limited near-term Fed easing, with the policy rate held steady and potential hikes under discussion, while real yields remain elevated on growth expectations tied to AI investment and solid nominal activity. Upcoming catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, CPI and PCE releases, employment reports, and Treasury auctions that could shift term premium or rate-path expectations. Current levels sit well above year-ago readings near 4.9%, underscoring how fiscal and inflation dynamics continue to anchor longer-term yields.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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