Weinstein's existing 16-year California sentence for rape and sexual assault, set to run consecutively with any New York penalties, underpins the strong market consensus around no additional prison time. Recent mistrials in his Manhattan retrials—including the May 2026 deadlock on the Jessica Mann charges after a prior mixed verdict—have limited prospects for further convictions that could extend his term. At 74 and facing documented health challenges, the disgraced producer's legal position has stabilized around his current incarceration without imminent new sentencing triggers. Upcoming developments remain tied to appeals and any prosecutorial decisions on retrying unresolved counts, keeping the implied odds anchored in the ongoing uncertainty of the #MeToo-era proceedings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHarvey Weinstein hires new legal team for upcoming New York retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 40%10%
Weinstein replaced his legal team with high-profile attorneys ahead of his New York retrial, signaling a strategic shift in defense that affected market perceptions of his chances and potential sentencing outcomes.
Sentencing finalized: Weinstein receives 23‑year prison term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 7%72%
With the sentencing now officially announced as a 23‑year term, the market’s “No Prison Time” price fell to its lowest point for the window, cementing the outcome.
Harvey Weinstein rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time jumps to 79%9%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' option for this case, as the charge remains unresolved.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%70%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration and increasing the likelihood of no additional prison time from this case.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York trial ends in mistrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time surges to 84%54%
The jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This outcome strongly increased the market's confidence in "No Prison Time" as the retrial did not conclude with a prison sentence.
Manhattan District Attorney to consult accuser on next steps after Weinstein mistrial
Following the mistrial, the DA's office announced it would consult Jessica Mann before deciding on a potential fourth trial, maintaining uncertainty but reinforcing market expectations of no immediate prison sentence.
Weinstein convicted and sentenced to 23‑year term in New York
20-30 years plunges to 8%76%
A jury verdict was announced, convicting Weinstein of a sexual‑act charge and sentencing him to 23 years (concurrent with his California term). This triggered the market to flip to “20‑30 years”.
Weinstein's Lawyer Considers Plea Deal to Avoid Fourth Trial
Following the mistrial, Weinstein's defense indicated openness to a plea deal that could run concurrently with existing sentences, suggesting limited additional prison time from New York retrials, which influenced market prices toward no new prison time.
Judge Farber postpones verdict in Weinstein retrial
No Prison Time drops to 84%9%
Following the closing arguments, Judge Farber announced a delayed verdict, keeping the outcome uncertain and causing a brief drop in the “No Prison Time” price before the market rebounded later in May.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments urging jury to convict Harvey Weinstein
No Prison Time surges to 89%19%
Prosecutors emphasized the power dynamics and strength of accusers, urging the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, which temporarily affected market prices but did not decisively shift outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Ends in Mistrial
No Prison Time dips to 79%4%
The third trial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann ended in a mistrial after the jury was deadlocked and the foreperson refused to continue deliberations citing safety concerns. This repeated mistrial reinforced market expectations of no additional prison time from New York retrials.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial due to jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%16%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial declaration. This event sharply increased market confidence in the 'No Prison Time' outcome as no sentencing occurred.
Judge declares mistrial in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time drops to 80%7%
On May 15, 2026, the judge declared a mistrial after the jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, marking the third time a jury failed to reach a verdict on this charge. This event significantly increased market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome for this retrial.
Prosecutors deliver closing arguments in Weinstein’s New York retrial
Prosecutors emphasized the accusers' credibility and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but with ongoing uncertainty.
Prosecutors urge jury to convict Harvey Weinstein in New York sex crimes retrial
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and urging conviction, intensifying the trial's climax and impacting market expectations on prison time.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution urges jury to 'let him know the rules apply to him'
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing accountability, reinforcing the seriousness of charges and affecting market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations
No Prison Time surges to 87%34%
During jury deliberations in May 2026, Weinstein experienced chest pains and was briefly taken out of court, causing a temporary pause in deliberations. This health incident added uncertainty to the trial's outcome and affected market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein retrial prosecution delivers closing arguments
No Prison Time surges to 79%39%
Prosecutors summarized accusers' testimonies and urged the jury to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the case against him and affecting market prices.
Harvey Weinstein retrial closing arguments conclude with prosecution urging conviction
No Prison Time drops to 40%6%
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the accusers' strength and the need to hold Weinstein accountable, reinforcing the possibility of prison time but also highlighting the contested nature of the case.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but acquitted on another in New York retrial
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with no verdict on the Jessica Mann rape charge, increasing uncertainty and market volatility.
Harvey Weinstein reports chest pains during jury deliberations in rape retrial
During jury deliberations in Weinstein's 2026 New York rape retrial, he reported chest pains, causing the court to end deliberations early for the day. This health issue highlighted Weinstein's deteriorating condition but did not directly affect the trial outcome. The jury later resumed deliberations but ultimately deadlocked.
Jury Deliberations Begin in Harvey Weinstein's Third Rape Trial
No Prison Time surges to 79%51%
After a monthlong trial, the jury began deliberating on the single count of third-degree rape involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein Retrial Jury Declared Mistrial After Deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%72%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and significantly increasing market confidence in the "No Prison Time" outcome due to uncertainty about further sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
No Prison Time surges to 79%38%
The jury in Weinstein's New York rape retrial failed to reach a unanimous verdict, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This was the third trial on the charge, with previous convictions overturned and a prior deadlock. The prosecution considered next steps, but no sentencing occurred.
Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears conclusion
Defense closing arguments emphasized the lack of proof for non-consensual sex, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as New York rape retrial closes
No Prison Time surges to 78%36%
Defense closing arguments emphasized Weinstein's innocence and challenged accusers' credibility, impacting market sentiment by increasing the probability of no prison time as doubts about conviction grew.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal as retrial nears close
No Prison Time surges to 93%68%
Weinstein’s defense made a high‑profile closing‑argument appeal for acquittal, intensifying media coverage and pushing the market’s “No Prison Time” price sharply higher as a conviction seemed less likely.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial nears closing
Weinstein's defense urged jurors to acquit him in the retrial focusing on the Jessica Mann rape charge, highlighting the ongoing contest over the case's outcome and influencing market sentiment.
Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as retrial closes
No Prison Time surges to 84%53%
Weinstein’s defense made a final plea for acquittal just before jury deliberations. The market reacted by moving sharply toward “No Prison Time” as many expected a dead‑lock.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Closing arguments began with Weinstein's defense urging acquittal, emphasizing the complexity of the relationship with the accuser. This led to increased market uncertainty and a temporary dip in the no-prison-time probability.
Harvey Weinstein defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
Defense closing arguments urged jurors to acquit Weinstein, framing the allegations as false and emphasizing complexities in the accuser's relationship with Weinstein. This influenced market sentiment by highlighting the defense's confidence and the trial's uncertain outcome.
Harvey Weinstein's defense seeks acquittal as rape retrial comes to close
No Prison Time jumps to 46%6%
Weinstein's defense made closing arguments urging acquittal, emphasizing consent and challenging accusers' credibility. This influenced market sentiment by raising the possibility of no prison time or a lighter sentence.
Prosecutors Urge Jury to Hold Weinstein Accountable in Retrial Closing Arguments
Prosecutors delivered closing arguments emphasizing the power dynamics and urging the jury to convict Weinstein, while defense argued accusers were motivated by money and fame, intensifying market speculation on sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
No Prison Time dips to 24%4%
Opening statements in Weinstein's New York rape retrial emphasized themes of power and consent, with prosecutors portraying Weinstein as a predator and defense focusing on consent and regret. This trial phase influenced market sentiment on potential prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Opens with Opening Statements
10-20 years drops to 13%13%
The third Manhattan sex-crimes trial officially opened, focusing on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens in New York, third time this case has gone to trial
Opening statements began with prosecutors emphasizing Weinstein's abuse of power and defense focusing on consent, setting the tone for the trial and influencing market sentiment.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial opens for third time
10-20 years surges to 69%24%
A third opening of the retrial was reported, focusing on a single rape charge. The renewed focus on a single count increased market expectations of a possible prison sentence, pulling the price of “No Prison Time” down.
Harvey Weinstein’s third New York rape retrial opens with opening statements
Opening statements in the third retrial emphasized power and consent issues, with prosecutors and defense presenting contrasting narratives, impacting market sentiment on conviction and sentencing likelihood.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
Jury selection began for Weinstein's latest retrial focusing on a single rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the scope of the case and affecting market expectations about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's third New York rape retrial begins
No Prison Time surges to 27%20%
The third retrial of Harvey Weinstein on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann began in April 2026, focusing solely on this single charge after previous trials included multiple accusers and charges. This event marked a renewed legal effort and influenced market activity as the trial progressed.
Harvey Weinstein's Third New York Rape Trial Begins with Jury Selection
Jury selection started for Weinstein's third New York rape retrial focusing on the 2013 rape allegation by Jessica Mann. This retrial was a continuation of the unresolved legal process, impacting market sentiment with ongoing uncertainty about conviction and sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein faces third New York rape retrial focusing on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time drops to 28%10%
A new retrial was scheduled focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, with jury selection beginning. This renewed trial phase caused market fluctuations as the case's outcome remained uncertain.
Harvey Weinstein to face third New York retrial on rape charge
A new retrial was scheduled focusing on a single charge involving Jessica Mann, renewing market attention and speculation on the potential sentence outcome.
Harvey Weinstein to face retrial on New York rape charge
ABC reported the scheduling of a new retrial for the remaining third‑degree rape charge, reviving the possibility of a lengthy prison sentence and shifting market interest away from “No Prison Time.”
Weinstein hires new lawyer Marc Agnifilo ahead of retrial
No Prison Time jumps to 84%6%
A new defence team led by Marc Agnifilo was announced ahead of the upcoming retrial, contributing to a sharp jump in “No Prison Time” as market participants expected a tougher defence.
Harvey Weinstein Faces Third New York Retrial on Rape Charge
Jury selection began for Weinstein's third New York retrial focusing solely on the 2013 rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This renewed trial narrowed the scope to a single charge, influencing market expectations about the likelihood of prison time.
Harvey Weinstein faces retrial on New York rape charge involving Jessica Mann
No Prison Time drops to 28%12%
Jury selection began for Weinstein's latest retrial focusing solely on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, narrowing the case and potentially affecting sentencing outcomes. This development brought renewed attention to the case and influenced market probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein retrial begins on rape charge in New York
Jury selection started for Weinstein's latest retrial on a third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This retrial focused on a single charge and accuser, streamlining the case. Weinstein denied all accusations and maintained the encounters were consensual.
Harvey Weinstein Replaces Legal Team with High-Profile Defense Attorneys Ahead of Third Trial
<5 years surges to 56%53%
Weinstein shook up his legal representation by hiring Jacob Kaplan and Marc Agnifilo, known for representing high-profile clients, to defend him in his upcoming third New York rape trial.
Judge denies Weinstein's motion for new trial amid juror complaints
No Prison Time rises to 9%3%
A New York judge denied Harvey Weinstein's request for a new trial despite juror complaints of coercion, affirming the partial conviction for sexual assault on Miriam Haley. The judge declared a mistrial on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann due to jury deadlock, setting the stage for another retrial.
Judge Denies Harvey Weinstein's Motion for New Trial on Miriam Haley Conviction
No Prison Time surges to 25%18%
Judge Curtis Farber rejected Weinstein's bid to set aside his June 2025 conviction, solidifying the conviction and paving the way for a retrial on the deadlocked rape charge.
Prosecutors say they will review next steps after Weinstein‑mistrial
No Prison Time plunges to 9%32%
A New York appellate decision upheld the mistrial and announced that prosecutors would consider a fourth trial, reviving speculation of a future sentence and causing the market’s “No Prison Time” price to dip.
Analysis: Public fatigue with Weinstein case lowers sentencing expectations
No Prison Time jumps to 48%13%
A major media analysis piece highlighted the dwindling public sympathy for Weinstein, nudging the market back toward “No Prison Time” after a brief rise in longer‑sentence bets earlier in December.
Weinstein sentenced to 16 years in California for rape and sexual assault
In December 2022, Weinstein was convicted in Los Angeles on three counts of rape and sexual assault and sentenced to 16 years in prison. This sentence is separate from the New York case and contributes to his overall prison time, making it likely he will spend the rest of his life incarcerated regardless of New York retrial outcomes.
Weinstein defense urges acquittal in closing arguments
5-10 years plunges to 1%70%
Defense lawyers intensified their acquittal push during closing arguments, leading the market to briefly swing toward longer sentences as prosecutors prepared for a possible conviction.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley in New York retrial
A jury convicted Weinstein of sexually abusing Haley, but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola and deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict maintained uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 30%21%
The retrial began with opening statements in November 2025, introducing a new accuser Kaja Sokola and revisiting charges from previous trials. This event renewed market attention and caused volatility as the trial's outcome was uncertain.
New charges filed against Harvey Weinstein in New York
A New York grand jury indicted Weinstein on new charges in September 2024, which prosecutors sought to consolidate into his retrial. This development extended the legal proceedings and contributed to the complexity and length of the retrial process.
New accuser Kaja Sokola identified in Weinstein retrial opening
<5 years rises to 10%3%
The identification of a new accuser (Kaja Sokola) in opening statements raised speculation of additional charges, pushing the market briefly toward longer‑sentence outcomes.
Prosecutors open Weinstein retrial with power‑abuse narrative
No Prison Time plunges to 7%21%
Prosecution opening statements highlighted Weinstein’s alleged abuse of power, causing a modest rise in “No Prison Time” as the jury heard the case but no verdict was yet rendered.
Harvey Weinstein Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial Due to Jury Deadlock
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury was hopelessly deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, prompting Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased the probability that no additional prison time would be imposed from this retrial, affecting market prices accordingly.
Mistrial declared in Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial due to deadlocked jury
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading the judge to declare a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about a prison sentence from this retrial, pushing market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein's New York rape retrial ends in mistrial on Jessica Mann charge
No Prison Time surges to 30%23%
The jury was deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased the market's probability of no prison time as the case remained unresolved and could require another retrial or dismissal.
Weinstein retrial ends in mistrial on rape charge
No Prison Time dips to 80%4%
A jury declared a mistrial on the remaining rape charge, leading the market to resolve to “No Prison Time” as no sentence could be rendered.
Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley in New York retrial
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
A New York jury convicted Harvey Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing from this retrial.
Harvey Weinstein’s rape retrial ends in mistrial
No Prison Time surges to 86%44%
The jury returned a mistrial on the third‑degree rape charge after being dead‑locked. Because no prison sentence could be imposed, the market surged back to “No Prison Time”.
Jury deadlocks in Weinstein retrial on rape charge, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 5%2%
The jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial and increasing uncertainty about a conviction in this retrial, impacting market prices toward 'No Prison Time'.
Jury deadlocks on rape charge in Weinstein retrial, mistrial declared
No Prison Time dips to 4%3%
The jury could not reach a unanimous verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This increased uncertainty about sentencing and influenced market prices toward "No Prison Time."
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge
5-10 years jumps to 15%8%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to mixed market reactions with some increase in conviction probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's Rape Retrial Ends in Mistrial on Jessica Mann Charge
No Prison Time plunges to 25%25%
The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading Judge Curtis Farber to declare a mistrial. This outcome increased market expectations for "No Prison Time" from the New York retrial due to unresolved charges and ongoing legal uncertainty.
Judge Declares Mistrial on Jessica Mann Rape Charge After Jury Foreman Reports Intimidation
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
The judge declared a mistrial on the remaining third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann after the jury foreman refused to continue, alleging bullying by other jurors.
Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault, Acquitted on Another, Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time rises to 9%2%
The jury convicted Weinstein of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict influenced market prices, increasing probability of no additional prison time.
Weinstein convicted on one count and acquitted on another in New York retrial; mistrial declared on rape charge
In the 2025 New York retrial, Weinstein was convicted of a criminal sexual act and acquitted on another charge, but the jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a mistrial. This mixed verdict created uncertainty in the market about his final prison sentence from the New York case.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault but jury deadlocks on rape charge
No Prison Time plunges to 35%15%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but the jury failed to reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, resulting in a mistrial on that count. This mixed verdict influenced market prices by reducing confidence in long prison sentences for the Mann charge.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Criminal Sexual Act in New York Retrial Mixed Verdict
10-20 years drops to 26%7%
A Manhattan jury found Weinstein guilty of a criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola, while deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
5-10 years dips to 12%3%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him of assaulting Kaja Sokola. The jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexually Abusing Miriam Haley but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
No Prison Time surges to 41%27%
Weinstein was found guilty of a first-degree criminal sexual act against Miriam Haley, but the jury deadlocked on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and a mistrial on that count.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual assault on Miriam Haley but acquitted on Kaja Sokola charge
<5 years surges to 40%34%
In the New York retrial, the jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to uncertainty about sentencing and impacting market prices for prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
5-10 years jumps to 13%11%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Kaja Sokola, with no verdict reached on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict caused market shifts reflecting mixed expectations for prison time.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
The jury found Weinstein guilty of one count of criminal sexual act but acquitted him on another, with no verdict on the third-degree rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial verdict created uncertainty, impacting market prices for different prison time outcomes.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola
<5 years surges to 35%29%
The jury found Weinstein guilty of sexually assaulting Haley but acquitted him on the charge involving Sokola. The jury deadlocked on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to ongoing uncertainty about sentencing and prison time.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial ends in a mistrial
No Prison Time drops to 7%7%
Weinstein appeared in court for jury deliberations, but the jury dead‑locked on the third‑degree rape charge, leading to a mistrial. The lack of a conviction drove the market sharply toward “No Prison Time.”
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team as retrial looms
No Prison Time jumps to 28%11%
Weinstein’s new counsel Jacob Kaplan took over the defence, a development that lifted “No Prison Time” sharply as analysts speculated a more aggressive defence strategy.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached. This change influenced market perceptions of his defense strength and trial outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's rape retrial ends in mistrial after jury deadlock
A majority-male jury could not reach a unanimous decision on the rape charge, resulting in a mistrial and leaving the New York conviction in limbo.
Harvey Weinstein convicted of sexual abuse of Miriam Haley in New York retrial
5-10 years dips to 12%3%
In June 2025, Weinstein was convicted of sexually abusing Miriam Haley but acquitted of assaulting Kaja Sokola, with the jury deadlocking on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann. This partial conviction influenced market prices, reducing the likelihood of no prison time and increasing mid-range sentence probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein Convicted of Sexual Assault but Jury Deadlocks on Rape Charge
<5 years dips to 6%1%
Weinstein was convicted of sexually assaulting Miriam Haley but acquitted on another charge and the jury could not reach a verdict on the rape charge involving Jessica Mann, leading to a partial verdict and ongoing uncertainty about sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached, influencing market perceptions of his chances.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser identified, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual offenses. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Weinstein’s lawyer says public protests have died down
No Prison Time rises to 17%3%
Weinstein’s lawyer publicly said the #MeToo protests had faded, prompting a brief dip in “No Prison Time” as the market sensed a less hostile environment for the defence.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense approach. This change affected market perceptions of his trial prospects and potential sentencing.
Harvey Weinstein replaces legal team ahead of New York retrial
Weinstein hired new attorneys, including lawyers associated with Sean 'Diddy' Combs, signaling a strategic shift in his defense as the retrial approached. This change influenced market perceptions of his defense strength and trial outcome probabilities.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser testifying, renewing focus on Weinstein's alleged sexual crimes. This event marked the formal restart of the legal process after his 2020 conviction was overturned, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein's New York retrial begins with opening statements and new accuser
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
The retrial started with prosecutors presenting their case and a new accuser, Kaja Sokola, coming forward. This renewed legal challenge increased uncertainty about Weinstein's potential prison sentence, initially lowering the market's confidence in 'No Prison Time'.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial for sex crimes begins
The retrial started with jury selection in Manhattan, following the overturning of Weinstein's 2020 conviction due to procedural errors. This event marked the official restart of the legal process, impacting market expectations about potential prison time.
Harvey Weinstein’s New York retrial begins with jury selection
No Prison Time plunges to 14%36%
Jury selection began for the New York retrial. The start of the trial pushed the market down as a conviction became uncertain, moving the price of “No Prison Time” toward the low‑teens.
Harvey Weinstein New York retrial begins with opening statements
No Prison Time surges to 80%30%
The retrial commenced after the 2020 conviction was overturned, with prosecutors presenting their case and the defense making initial arguments, increasing uncertainty about a prison sentence.
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