**Iran has maintained administrative and military control over Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971 alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, using the islands to support IRGC positions monitoring the Strait of Hormuz.** US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without altering on-ground sovereignty. Iran continues to reject UAE and GCC claims—reaffirmed in recent summits calling for negotiations or ICJ referral—while formally registering ownership deeds and reinforcing missile deployments. UAE responses have included trade suspensions amid bilateral tensions, yet no territorial shift has occurred. With the market focused on control by late August 2026, trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or internationally backed authority replacing Iranian administration, consistent with decades of effective Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic pressure.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$52,985 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$52,985 Vol.
August 31
$30,476 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has maintained administrative and military control over Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971 alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, using the islands to support IRGC positions monitoring the Strait of Hormuz.** US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without altering on-ground sovereignty. Iran continues to reject UAE and GCC claims—reaffirmed in recent summits calling for negotiations or ICJ referral—while formally registering ownership deeds and reinforcing missile deployments. UAE responses have included trade suspensions amid bilateral tensions, yet no territorial shift has occurred. With the market focused on control by late August 2026, trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or internationally backed authority replacing Iranian administration, consistent with decades of effective Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$52,985Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran has maintained administrative and military control over Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971 alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, using the islands to support IRGC positions monitoring the Strait of Hormuz.** US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without altering on-ground sovereignty. Iran continues to reject UAE and GCC claims—reaffirmed in recent summits calling for negotiations or ICJ referral—while formally registering ownership deeds and reinforcing missile deployments. UAE responses have included trade suspensions amid bilateral tensions, yet no territorial shift has occurred. With the market focused on control by late August 2026, trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or internationally backed authority replacing Iranian administration, consistent with decades of effective Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,985Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran has maintained administrative and military control over Greater Tunb since seizing it in 1971 alongside Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, using the islands to support IRGC positions monitoring the Strait of Hormuz.** US strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted coastal defenses and cruise-missile facilities on Greater Tunb during escalation over shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without altering on-ground sovereignty. Iran continues to reject UAE and GCC claims—reaffirmed in recent summits calling for negotiations or ICJ referral—while formally registering ownership deeds and reinforcing missile deployments. UAE responses have included trade suspensions amid bilateral tensions, yet no territorial shift has occurred. With the market focused on control by late August 2026, trader consensus reflects the absence of any occupation, handover, or internationally backed authority replacing Iranian administration, consistent with decades of effective Iranian presence despite periodic diplomatic pressure.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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