Christopher Luxon’s survival of a National Party caucus confidence vote on August 12, where he defeated a challenge from Defence Minister Chris Penk and secured reported full support, has anchored trader expectations that he will remain prime minister through September 30. Penk was immediately removed from cabinet portfolios and later confirmed he would not contest the November 7 election. No subsequent leadership moves or caucus divisions have surfaced in the fortnight since, despite ongoing weak personal polling for Luxon and National’s position near 29 percent. With the general election less than three months away, the risks of further internal disruption appear to outweigh any immediate pressure for change, leaving little scope for removal in the narrow window.