California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,981 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$21,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,737Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,737Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
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