Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court allows Renan Santos to resume online campaign

Renan Santos dips to 1%2%

After a temporary suspension due to unregistered campaign profiles, the court authorized Renan Santos to resume digital campaigning, stabilizing his market position despite low overall support.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff scenario

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%13%

A Datafolha poll conducted on September 1–2, 2026, showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie in a potential runoff, indicating a highly competitive race. This tightening of the race was reflected in market prices, with Flávio Bolsonaro's support rising significantly in 2026.

Augusto Cury surges in presidential polls after TV interviews and social media growth

Augusto Cury jumps to 8%6%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury gained significant support in polls, rising from low single digits to 8–11%, drawing voters seeking a centrist alternative and causing a surge in his market price.

Augusto Cury surges in Brazil presidential polls as outsider candidate

Augusto Cury surges to 35%34%

Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and bestselling author, surged in opinion polls due to television appearances and social media presence, challenging the dominant Lula and Bolsonaro contest and briefly becoming a notable third-place contender.

Augusto Cury gains ground in presidential polls as third-way candidate

Augusto Cury plunges to 1%34%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury surged in opinion polls, reaching double digits in some surveys, driven by his outsider status, social media following, and appeal to voters tired of polarization, impacting his market price significantly.

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court bars Pablo Marçal from debates and campaign funds

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%34%

The Superior Electoral Court prohibited Pablo Marçal from participating in debates, accessing public campaign funds, and using free radio and TV airtime due to legal questions about his eligibility, severely limiting his campaign visibility and causing his market support to collapse.

Flávio Bolsonaro gains in polls after official campaign launch

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%13%

Following his official campaign launch and endorsement by his father, Flávio Bolsonaro's polling numbers increased significantly, reflecting growing support within the right-wing electorate despite some fragmentation.

Augusto Cury’s poll surge fades amid campaign challenges

Augusto Cury plunges to 2%33%

Following initial poll gains, Augusto Cury’s support sharply declined due to limited campaign resources and media restrictions, reflected in his market price dropping from 35% to 2%.

Brazilian Electoral Court suspends Renan Santos' campaign over unregistered social media profiles

Renan Santos drops to 2%5%

The Superior Electoral Court ordered the suspension of Renan Santos' online ads, froze his public funding, and barred him from debates due to late registration of social media accounts, severely impacting his campaign activities and market support.

Brazilian Electoral Court maintains Pablo Marçal's eight-year ineligibility ruling

Pablo Marçal dips to 0%1%

The São Paulo Regional Electoral Court rejected appeals from Pablo Marçal and the Public Prosecutor's Office, upholding his eight-year ineligibility and a fine for misuse of communication media during the 2024 campaign, impacting his candidacy viability.

Augusto Cury gives interview outlining policy proposals and campaign vision

Augusto Cury, presidential candidate for the Avante party, gave a detailed interview discussing his plans for education, healthcare, and economic reforms, aiming to appeal to voters seeking alternatives to traditional politics, which helped stabilize his market position.

Flávio Bolsonaro vows to respect Brazil election outcome amid campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly stated he will respect the results of the October 2026 presidential election, seeking to reassure voters and markets of his commitment to democratic processes despite the polarized political environment.

Flávio Bolsonaro pledges to respect Brazil's election outcome

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly committed to respecting the results of the October 2026 presidential election, seeking to reassure voters and markets amid a highly polarized campaign.

Brazil Electoral Court suspends Renan Santos campaign over unregistered social media profiles

Renan Santos drops to 2%7%

The electoral court suspended Renan Santos' campaign activities including digital ads, public funding, and debate participation due to late registration of social media profiles. This suspension caused his market price to fall from 9% to 2%.

Pablo Marçal registers presidential candidacy despite legal ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal filed his candidacy minutes before the deadline despite being legally ineligible until 2032, creating legal uncertainty and causing his market support to collapse.

Augusto Cury surges in presidential polls, becoming a surprise contender

Augusto Cury plunges to 1%34%

Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and bestselling author, experienced a rapid rise in opinion polls, challenging the dominant Lula-Bolsonaro race. His surge briefly increased his market support as an alternative candidate.

Augusto Cury surges in polls after TV interview

Augusto Cury plunges to 2%33%

Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and best-selling author, gained significant support in polls following a high-profile interview on Brazil's most-watched news program, causing his market price to jump from 35% to 2% and briefly positioning him as a notable third candidate.

Augusto Cury officially registered as Avante party presidential candidate

Augusto Cury plunges to 2%33%

The Avante party officially registered Augusto Cury's candidacy, formalizing his entry into the presidential race and causing a brief spike in market interest before his support collapsed due to limited political experience and campaign challenges.

Flávio Bolsonaro holds first presidential campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 41%12%

Flávio Bolsonaro held his first official presidential campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro, signaling the formal start of his campaign activities and energizing his supporter base, which was reflected in market interest.

Romeu Zema campaigns on anti-corruption and public safety in Rio favela

Romeu Zema dips to 0%1%

Presidential candidate Romeu Zema met with residents of the Tavares Bastos favela in Rio de Janeiro to discuss public security, emphasizing his campaign focus on corruption and safety, which aligns with his policy proposals and attempts to gain voter support.

Romeu Zema launches presidential campaign at Novo party convention

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema officially entered the presidential race as the Novo party candidate, briefly raising his market odds before declining to zero by early September.

First presidential debate targets Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

In the first presidential debate, candidates Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury criticized front-runners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, who both avoided the event, highlighting polarization and campaign tensions that affected market perceptions.

Augusto Cury's poll surge fades amid campaign challenges

Augusto Cury plunges to 2%33%

After a rapid rise in support, Augusto Cury's polling numbers declined sharply due to campaign difficulties and limited media exposure, causing his market price to drop from 35% to 2%.

First presidential debate sees absence of leading candidates Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

The first debate of the 2026 presidential campaign was marked by the absence of frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with only Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Augusto Cury participating, impacting public perception and campaign dynamics.

Augusto Cury withdraws from first presidential debate in protest

Augusto Cury plunges to 2%33%

Augusto Cury, a presidential candidate and psychiatrist, initially planned to participate in Brazil's first 2026 presidential debate but withdrew in protest after leading candidates Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro boycotted, reflecting the polarized and strategic nature of the campaign.

First presidential debate of 2026 sees major candidates boycott, Augusto Cury protests

The first presidential debate of 2026 was marked by the boycott of frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and the absence of Romeu Zema, leaving half the lecterns empty. Augusto Cury protested by initially quitting but then participating, highlighting the polarized and defensive campaign strategies.

First presidential debate scheduled for August 23, 2026

The first official presidential debate for the 2026 election was scheduled for August 23, providing candidates a platform to present their policies and potentially influence voter preferences and market prices.

Augusto Cury surges in Brazil presidential polls after TV interview

Augusto Cury jumps to 11%9%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury gained significant support in polls following a high-profile interview on Brazil's most-watched news program. His surge to third place in polls briefly increased his market price from 2% to around 11%, reflecting voter interest in a centrist alternative to the polarized Lula and Bolsonaro camps.

Augusto Cury emerges as surprise contender in presidential race

Augusto Cury surges to 35%33%

Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and best-selling author with no prior elected office experience, gained significant poll support and media attention, causing his market price to surge briefly before collapsing.

Mission Party officially nominates Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%

The newly formed Mission Party officially confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race and increasing his visibility among younger voters, though his overall support remained limited.

Augusto Cury gains significant social media following after first presidential debate

Augusto Cury rises to 3%1%

Following the first presidential debate, Augusto Cury experienced a surge in social media followers and public interest, reflecting increased visibility and campaign momentum.

Flávio Bolsonaro holds campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 43%10%

Flávio Bolsonaro actively campaigned with a rally in Rio de Janeiro, reinforcing his position as the main right-wing candidate and contributing to a rise in his market price as the election approached.

Flávio Bolsonaro holds campaign rally in Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro held a campaign rally in Duque de Caxias with key party figures, reinforcing his presence in Rio de Janeiro and energizing his base. This event contributed to a late campaign momentum reflected in market price increases.

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court bars Pablo Marçal from debates and public funds

Pablo Marçal dips to 1%2%

The Superior Electoral Court prohibited Pablo Marçal from participating in debates, receiving free TV and radio time, and accessing public campaign funds due to ongoing legal review of his candidacy, severely limiting his campaign visibility and causing his market support to collapse.

Brazil's Electoral Court bars Pablo Marçal from debates, TV time, and public funds

Pablo Marçal dips to 1%3%

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court prohibited Pablo Marçal from accessing public campaign funds and participating in debates due to legal questions about his eligibility, severely limiting his campaign visibility and causing his market support to collapse to near zero.

TSE restricts Pablo Marçal's campaign activities pending final registration decision

Pablo Marçal plunges to 2%33%

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court imposed restrictions on Pablo Marçal's campaign, barring him from debates, free media slots, and public funds until a final decision on his candidacy registration is made, severely limiting his campaign viability.

Pablo Marçal enters presidential race to support Flávio Bolsonaro against Renan Santos

Pablo Marçal plunges to 2%48%

Pablo Marçal announced his candidacy with the intention to act as a political ally to Flávio Bolsonaro, aiming to counter the rise of Renan Santos. This strategic entry was noted in media and coincided with initial market interest before his campaign was restricted by the electoral court.

Pablo Marçal pledges to participate in debates and not to harm Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign

Pablo Marçal stated his intention to participate in electoral debates and assured he would not create problems for Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, signaling a cooperative stance despite competing for similar voter bases.

Augusto Cury advocates for parliamentary system and praises Tarcísio de Freitas

Augusto Cury stated that Brazil effectively operates under a parliamentary system and suggested that a first minister like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas would be ideal. This statement highlighted Cury's political positioning and briefly influenced market perceptions.

Flávio Bolsonaro selects Alfredo Gaspar as vice presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Senator Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, aiming to broaden his campaign appeal with a moderate and experienced partner. This strategic choice was seen as an effort to consolidate support and improve his competitiveness against Lula.

Flávio Bolsonaro gains ground in polls amid tightening race with Lula

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 39%9%

Flávio Bolsonaro's support surged to 39% as polls showed a narrowing gap with incumbent Lula, reflecting his consolidation as the main right-wing challenger.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches presidential campaign in Copacabana

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 30%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro began his presidential campaign with a rally in Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana, highlighting issues of sovereignty and security, and receiving public support despite controversies. This event contributed to a rise in his market price.

Lula and Bolsonaro launch presidential campaigns amid rising femicide concerns

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 63%3%

On August 16, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro launched their presidential campaigns in their respective strongholds, addressing issues including rising femicide rates in Brazil. Lula's campaign emphasized gender equality, which helped maintain his lead in the polls and market confidence.

Official campaign season begins with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro launching bids

The official campaign season for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election began with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launching his bid in São Bernardo do Campo and Flávio Bolsonaro starting his campaign at Copacabana Beach, solidifying their frontrunner status.

Pablo Marçal registers presidential candidacy despite legal ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal registered his candidacy for president with the PRTB party despite being legally ineligible due to prior electoral violations, leading to a sharp drop in his market price from 50% to near 0%.

Ronaldo Caiado begins presidential campaign with Mass and car caravan in Goiás

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%2%

Caiado officially started his campaign with a religious service and motorcade, positioning himself as opposition to Lula and emphasizing public safety, though his polling remained low.

Campaign launches: Lula and key challengers begin official election campaigns

On August 16, Lula launched his campaign in São Bernardo do Campo with a large event, while Flávio Bolsonaro opened his campaign in Copacabana wearing a bulletproof vest citing death threats. Other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema also began their campaigns, marking the official start of the election season and influencing market dynamics.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro launch presidential campaigns in their strongholds

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 65%1%

Both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched their presidential campaigns with large rallies in their political bases, reinforcing their positions as frontrunners. Lula's campaign launch was associated with a slight decline in his market price, while Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign launch coincided with a steady rise in his market price.

Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 56%8%

A poll showed President Lula maintaining a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a competitive race and influencing market prices for both candidates.

Lula launches 2026 campaign focusing on sovereignty and social issues

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 57%16%

Lula officially launched his 2026 re-election campaign in São Bernardo do Campo, emphasizing national sovereignty, social programs, and security. The event energized his base and reinforced his frontrunner position, reflected in a price increase in the market.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro officially launch presidential campaigns

Both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro kicked off their official presidential campaigns with rallies in their political strongholds, marking the start of the formal campaign period and influencing market prices accordingly.

Pablo Marçal's presidential candidacy collapses after court upholds ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court upheld Pablo Marçal's eight-year ineligibility, barring him from debates and public campaign funds, causing his market support to plummet from 50% to near zero.

Pablo Marçal's candidacy loses viability amid legal challenges

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal, despite registering his candidacy, faced legal challenges that rendered him inelegible until 2032, leading to a sharp drop in his market price and eventual loss of electoral viability.

Romeu Zema launches presidential campaign focusing on public security

Romeu Zema dips to 0%1%

Governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema officially launched his presidential campaign emphasizing public security and economic policies, but his market price remained low and declined to zero by September.

Brazil’s 2026 election campaign officially kicks off with Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, and Caiado launching campaigns

The official start of the 2026 presidential campaign saw Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, and Ronaldo Caiado launching their campaigns with rallies and events, marking the beginning of active vote-seeking and shaping voter engagement.

Brazil's presidential campaign season officially opens with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro launches

The official campaign season began on August 16, 2026, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launching his bid in São Bernardo do Campo and Flávio Bolsonaro starting his campaign at Copacabana Beach. These events marked the start of active campaigning, including rallies and voter outreach, solidifying their frontrunner status and influencing market prices.

Augusto Cury surges in presidential polls after TV appearances and social media growth

Augusto Cury jumps to 11%9%

Augusto Cury gained significant traction in opinion polls following television debates and a surge in social media followers, briefly positioning him as a notable third-place contender in the presidential race before his support declined.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro officially launch presidential campaigns

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%2%

Both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro kicked off their official presidential campaigns with rallies in their political strongholds, marking the start of the formal campaign period and influencing market prices accordingly.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro kick off presidential campaigns in their strongholds

Both leading candidates, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, held major campaign rallies in their political bases, signaling the start of an intense and competitive election season.

Augusto Cury surges in Brazil presidential polls as surprise contender

Augusto Cury plunges to 1%34%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury gained sharply in opinion polls, challenging the dominant Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro race, briefly increasing his market price before declining.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro launch presidential campaigns ahead of October vote

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched their campaigns in their political strongholds, setting the stage for a closely fought election and reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and Flávio's rising challenge.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launches re-election campaign in São Bernardo do Campo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 56%3%

Lula launched his campaign for a fourth term with a rally in São Bernardo do Campo, emphasizing his political experience and consolidating his lead in the election race.

Pablo Marçal's candidacy collapses amid legal challenges

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal, a businessman and digital influencer, faced legal issues including an eight-year ineligibility ruling, which led to a collapse in his market support from 50% to 0% within days, effectively ending his viability as a presidential candidate.

Pablo Marçal's presidential campaign collapses amid legal challenges

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal, a businessman and digital influencer, officially launched his presidential campaign in August 2026 but quickly faced legal challenges including a condemnation for abuse of power and use of false medical documents. His market price collapsed from 50% to near zero within days, reflecting the impact of these controversies on his viability as a candidate.

Brazil’s presidential candidates Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro kick off campaigns

Both Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched their presidential campaigns, marking the start of active campaigning and solidifying their positions as frontrunners in the election.

Lula holds major campaign rally in São Paulo, emphasizing equality and security

Lula's rally in São Paulo highlighted key campaign themes of equality and security, reinforcing his appeal to voters and maintaining his lead in the polls.

Romeu Zema officially launches presidential campaign in Montes Claros, Minas Gerais

Romeu Zema dips to 2%2%

Former governor Romeu Zema began his presidential campaign with a Mass and public appearances in Montes Claros, emphasizing anti-corruption and economic liberalism as part of his platform.

Augusto Cury surges in polls after TV interview, becoming third-place contender

Augusto Cury jumps to 11%10%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury gained significant support in opinion polls following a high-profile TV interview, rising from low single digits to around 11%, challenging the traditional two-candidate race and impacting market expectations.

Pablo Marçal registers presidential candidacy despite legal ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal registered his candidacy for president with the PRTB party despite being legally ineligible until 2032 due to prior convictions, causing initial market interest but a rapid collapse in his support due to legal uncertainties and campaign restrictions.

Pablo Marçal registered as presidential candidate despite inelegibility until 2032

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal was registered as a candidate for the presidency by the PRTB party despite being legally inelegible until 2032 due to a prior conviction, creating controversy and uncertainty around his candidacy.

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court bars Pablo Marçal from campaign activities

Pablo Marçal dips to 0%1%

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ruled to bar Pablo Marçal from participating in debates, accessing public campaign funds, and receiving free radio and television airtime due to his ineligibility, severely impacting his candidacy and market support.

Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro record joint video signaling reconciliation

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%3%

After a period of public disputes, Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro recorded a joint video message indicating reconciliation, slightly improving Michelle's political standing though her market support remained limited.

Pablo Marçal's presidential campaign falters amid legal challenges and party changes

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal, initially a presidential candidate for the PRTB, faced legal ineligibility until 2032 due to electoral convictions. Despite registering his candidacy in August 2026, his campaign lost viability, and he shifted party affiliation, leading to his market support collapsing to zero.

Michelle Bolsonaro registers candidacy for Senate in Federal District

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro registered her candidacy for the Senate representing the Federal District, aiming to strengthen the Bolsonaro political presence, though not running for president, influencing market perceptions of the Bolsonaro family’s political strategy.

Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 63%3%

A poll showed President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of the October election, reflecting a tightening race and influencing market perceptions of the candidates' chances.

BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in presidential race

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%12%

A major poll indicated a statistical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, intensifying the competition and influencing market prices for both candidates.

Michelle Bolsonaro's presidential prospects decline amid internal disputes

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 0%52%

Michelle Bolsonaro's market price dropped sharply as she publicly denied running for president and faced internal tensions within the Bolsonaro camp, diminishing her chances in the 2026 election.

Poll shows Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 66%1%

A Datafolha poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a narrow margin, reflecting a tightening race and supporting the market's view of a close contest between the two frontrunners.

Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court rejects Pablo Marçal's appeal, maintaining ineligibility

Pablo Marçal dips to 0%1%

On August 15, 2026, the president of the TRE-SP rejected Pablo Marçal's special appeal, upholding his eight-year ineligibility and casting doubt on his presidential candidacy, leading to a collapse in his market support.

Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro launch presidential campaigns as October vote heats up

Both Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro officially launched their presidential campaigns in their political strongholds, marking the start of the formal campaign period and setting the stage for a competitive election.

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Liberal Party nomination for 2026 presidential race

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 37%15%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, was officially nominated as the Liberal Party candidate with his father's endorsement, energizing his campaign and causing a significant rise in his market probability.

Lula holds campaign rally in São Bernardo do Campo, emphasizing gender equality

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 66%3%

Lula’s campaign rally focused on social issues like gender equality, reinforcing his appeal to progressive voters and maintaining his lead in the polls during the campaign season.

Pablo Marçal's candidacy registered despite legal ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Despite being declared ineligible until 2032, Pablo Marçal registered his candidacy for president with the PRTB, causing initial market interest but subsequent collapse due to legal uncertainties and court rulings barring his campaign activities.

Pablo Marçal's candidacy gains legal liminar allowing registration

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Despite being declared ineligible, Pablo Marçal obtained a liminar from the Electoral Justice allowing him to register his candidacy, temporarily sustaining his campaign presence before further judicial review.

Pablo Marçal obtains court injunction to join PRTB and register presidential candidacy

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Pablo Marçal secured a court injunction allowing his affiliation with the PRTB party and the registration of his candidacy for president, despite ongoing legal challenges rendering him inelegible until 2032, leading to a collapse in his market support.

Pablo Marçal registered candidacy despite legal ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

Pablo Marçal, declared ineligible until 2032 due to multiple electoral convictions, registered his candidacy for president with the PRTB, causing initial market interest but subsequent collapse due to legal uncertainties.

Datafolha poll shows Lula leads with 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%

A Datafolha poll released in August showed Lula leading the presidential race with 39% of voter intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, indicating a competitive but polarized election environment.

Pablo Marçal barred from using campaign funds and participating in debates by TSE

Pablo Marçal plunges to 2%33%

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court prohibited Pablo Marçal from accessing public campaign funds and participating in debates due to legal questions about his eligibility, severely limiting his campaign visibility and causing his market support to collapse to near zero.

Poll shows Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 56%8%

A Reuters poll indicated that Lula's lead over Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed, reflecting a tightening race and impacting market expectations for the election outcome.

Party conventions conclude with official candidate registrations for 2026 election

By mid-August 2026, Brazilian political parties completed their conventions and officially registered candidates for the presidential election, including Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema. This formalization marked the start of the official campaign period.

Flávio Bolsonaro presents government plan focusing on security and economy

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro presented his government plan in a live broadcast, outlining proposals on security and economic policies, aiming to strengthen his campaign platform ahead of the official start of the election campaign.

Michelle and Flávio Bolsonaro publicly reconcile and campaign together

Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro appeared together publicly for the first time since their June rift, recording campaign material and signaling a truce that could strengthen the Bolsonaro campaign.

Flávio Bolsonaro to officially launch presidential campaign in Rio de Janeiro

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%2%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to officially launch his presidential campaign in Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, marking a key step in his campaign efforts ahead of the October election.

Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in polls as election nears

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

Polls in early August showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro, though the race remained competitive, reflecting the tightening contest and influencing market confidence in Lula's chances.

Michelle Bolsonaro records joint message with Flávio Bolsonaro signaling reconciliation

In August 2026, Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro recorded a joint video message indicating reconciliation after previous public disputes, which slightly improved Michelle's political standing though her market support remained limited.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches campaign with Alfredo Gaspar as running mate

Flávio Bolsonaro formalized his presidential campaign with the announcement of his vice-presidential candidate, consolidating his ticket and campaign structure.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches 2026 presidential campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%9%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign in São Paulo, consolidating his position as the Liberal Party's candidate and leader of Bolsonarism after his father's ineligibility and imprisonment.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches presidential campaign with running mate Alfredo Gaspar

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign on August 7, 2026, naming Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, consolidating his position as the main right-wing candidate and causing his market price to rise from 24% to 27%.

Renan Santos registers presidential candidacy and declares campaign funds

Renan Santos dips to 3%3%

Renan Santos officially registered his candidacy for president and declared campaign finances, marking a formal step in his campaign and influencing market attention.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces running mate Alfredo Gaspar for vice president

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 26%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro selected Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate for the October election, aiming to strengthen his campaign infrastructure despite lacking broad centrist party support.

Brazil to become regular borrower in China, treasury official says

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 56%8%

Brazil's announcement to become a regular borrower in China reflects economic policy developments under Lula's government, potentially influencing voter confidence and market perceptions of Lula's administration stability.

Flávio Bolsonaro selects running mate amid centrist party neutrality

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced his vice-presidential running mate from his party after centrist parties largely failed to endorse him, reflecting challenges in building broad coalitions and impacting campaign dynamics.

Michelle Bolsonaro announces Senate candidacy, stepping back from presidential race

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro launched her campaign for the Federal District Senate, ending speculation about a presidential bid and causing her presidential market support to drop to zero.

Augusto Cury officially announced as presidential candidate by Avante party

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury was officially announced as the Avante party's candidate for president, bringing a new outsider element to the race and gaining attention in polls.

Flávio Bolsonaro names Alfredo Gaspar as running mate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate, solidifying his campaign ticket for the 2026 election. This move aimed to strengthen his campaign and appeal to a broader electorate.

Pablo Marçal registers presidential candidacy despite ineligibility

Pablo Marçal plunges to 0%50%

On August 5, 2026, Pablo Marçal, despite being legally ineligible due to prior electoral violations, registered his candidacy for president with the PRTB. The electoral court barred him from debates, TV time, and public funds, leading to a collapse in his market price from 50% to near zero.

Flávio Bolsonaro selects Alfredo Gaspar as vice presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, aiming to broaden his campaign appeal and consolidate support among centrist voters, which helped stabilize and increase his market position.

Renan Santos launches presidential campaign with anti-corruption and anti-polarization message

Renan Santos rises to 8%1%

Renan Santos officially launched his campaign criticizing both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, promising radical anti-corruption measures and positioning himself as an alternative to the polarized political landscape.

Michelle Bolsonaro admits possible 2026 candidacy but denies wanting presidency

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 0%52%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly entertained the possibility of running in 2026, raising her market price temporarily, but later denied wanting to be president, leading to a collapse in her market support and signaling internal right-wing disputes.

Renan Santos officially launches presidential campaign with anti-corruption focus

Renan Santos dips to 8%1%

Renan Santos formalized his candidacy for president with the Mission party, criticizing both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro and promising radical anti-corruption measures. This launch increased his visibility but did not significantly boost his market price, which remained low.

Avante party officially nominates Augusto Cury as presidential candidate

The Avante party held its national convention and officially confirmed Augusto Cury as its candidate for president, marking his formal entry into the race and boosting his visibility and polling numbers.

Augusto Cury surges in presidential polls after TV interview and social media growth

Augusto Cury surges to 35%33%

In early August 2026, psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury experienced a rapid rise in opinion polls and market interest following a high-profile TV interview and increased social media presence. His support jumped from low single digits to around 11%, briefly positioning him as a significant third-place contender in the election.

Avante party formalizes Augusto Cury's presidential candidacy

Augusto Cury rises to 1%1%

The Avante party officially confirmed Augusto Cury as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the race with a platform focused on combating political polarization and promoting mental health and education.

Lula officially nominated for fourth presidential term by Workers' Party

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party held its national convention and officially nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for re-election, with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate. This formalization reinforced Lula's frontrunner status and was followed by a market price increase.

Michelle Bolsonaro confirmed as Senate candidate amid family tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady, was confirmed as a candidate for the Senate by the Liberal Party, despite publicized tensions and disagreements with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, expanding the Bolsonaro family's political presence in the 2026 elections.

Lula formally launches reelection bid for a fourth term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%1%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially announced his candidacy for a fourth nonconsecutive term, emphasizing his energy and readiness despite his age, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner.

Lula formally nominated for re-election with Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party held its national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate, solidifying the leftist ticket ahead of the October election and reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirms bid for fourth presidential term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 56%1%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially announced his candidacy for a fourth term in the 2026 election, solidifying his position as the frontrunner and maintaining steady market support.

Lula launches fourth-term bid focusing on national sovereignty

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%1%

On August 2, 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launched his campaign for a fourth term, framing the election as a defense of national sovereignty and emphasizing his leadership. This event reinforced his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price reaching 64%.

Workers' Party officially nominates Lula for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party formally nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the October 2026 election, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status.

Workers' Party confirms Lula's re-election bid with Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%2%

The Workers' Party officially confirmed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy for a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status in the election market.

Lula formally launches bid for fourth presidential term with Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 64%9%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth term, confirming Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate. This move reassured moderate and business voters and reinforced Lula's frontrunner status in the election market.

PT confirms Lula and Geraldo Alckmin ticket for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party confirmed the presidential ticket of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and vice-president Geraldo Alckmin for the 2026 election, reinforcing continuity and stability in Lula's campaign.

PT confirms Lula’s candidacy and Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers’ Party formally confirmed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as their presidential candidate and Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate at the party convention, solidifying the coalition and campaign structure ahead of the election.

Lula and Alckmin officially nominated for 2026 re-election by Workers' Party

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

The Workers' Party held its convention in São Paulo, officially renominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin as the presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the October 2026 election, reinforcing their ticket and coalition ahead of the vote.

Lula officially nominated for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 61%4%

The Workers’ Party held its national convention, formally nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for re-election with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, solidifying the leftist ticket ahead of the October election.

Lula officially nominated for 2026 presidential re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%4%

The Workers' Party officially nominated incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for re-election in the 2026 presidential election, confirming Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential candidate. This solidified Lula's frontrunner status and contributed to his market price rising to 64%.

Workers' Party formally nominates Lula and Alckmin for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%2%

The Workers' Party held its national convention and officially nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates, solidifying Lula's frontrunner status and boosting his market price.

PT confirms Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as candidate for 2026 presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

The Workers' Party (PT) officially confirmed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its candidate for re-election in the 2026 presidential election, solidifying his frontrunner status.

Lula officially launches re-election campaign with party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party officially confirmed Lula's candidacy for re-election at its convention, rallying party leaders and supporters, reinforcing his frontrunner status ahead of the October election.

Lula’s Workers Party confirms re-election bid and running mate Geraldo Alckmin

The Workers Party confirmed Lula’s candidacy for a fourth term and announced Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, solidifying the ticket for the upcoming election.

Workers’ Party formally nominates Geraldo Alckmin as Lula’s running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

The Brazilian Socialist Party officially confirmed Geraldo Alckmin as vice-presidential candidate alongside Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, solidifying the leftist coalition and boosting Lula’s campaign stability and market confidence.

Lula da Silva formally launches reelection bid at Workers' Party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

On August 2, 2026, Lula formally launched his reelection campaign at the Workers' Party national convention, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and consolidating support ahead of the October election.

Lula launches formal bid for fourth presidential term amid rising foreign pressure

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth term as president, facing increasing pressure from foreign leaders ahead of the October election. This reaffirmed his frontrunner status and influenced market confidence in his candidacy.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces bid for fourth presidential term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%6%

President Lula officially announced his candidacy for a fourth term in the 2026 election during a Workers' Party convention, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing a rally in his market price.

Lula launches re-election campaign for fourth term in São Bernardo do Campo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth presidential term in the 2026 election, reinforcing his frontrunner status and positively influencing his market price.

President Lula formally announces reelection bid at Workers Party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

Lula formally announced his candidacy for a fourth term at the Workers Party national convention, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing a rally in his market price.

Lula launches reelection bid amid rising foreign pressure

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 65%5%

On August 2, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his reelection campaign for a fourth term, facing increasing pressure from foreign leaders. This solidified his frontrunner status and contributed to a surge in his market price.

Lula formally nominated for 2026 re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%2%

The Workers’ Party held its national convention to formally nominate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a fourth term, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as his vice-presidential candidate. This official nomination solidified Lula's campaign and reinforced his frontrunner status.

Lula officially nominates Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 re-election bid

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%7%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally nominated Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate for the 2026 election, solidifying his ticket and reinforcing his frontrunner status. This boosted Lula's market position and consolidated his lead.

Workers' Party confirms Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy and Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 56%17%

The Workers' Party officially confirmed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate, reinforcing campaign stability and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market position.

Lula officially launches reelection bid at Workers' Party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%3%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally announced his candidacy for a fourth term at the Workers' Party convention, reinforcing his frontrunner status amid growing international attention and campaign momentum.

Lula officially nominated as Workers' Party presidential candidate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

Lula was officially nominated by the Workers' Party at a large event in São Paulo, confirming his bid for a fourth term and reinforcing his frontrunner status in the election market.

Lula officially launches fourth-term presidential campaign at Workers’ Party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launched his campaign for a fourth term at the Workers’ Party national convention, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting his market position.

Lula formally launches campaign for fourth presidential term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%2%

On August 2, 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth term, emphasizing national sovereignty and his achievements. This helped boost his market price from 62% to 64%.

Lula launches fourth-term presidential campaign focusing on national sovereignty

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 55%2%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva formally launched his campaign for a fourth term, framing the election as a defense of national sovereignty and contrasting his platform with Bolsonaro's ties to Trump.

Lula officially confirmed as PT presidential candidate with Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was formally confirmed as the presidential candidate for the Workers' Party, with Geraldo Alckmin confirmed again as his vice-presidential running mate, consolidating the left-wing coalition for the 2026 election.

Workers' Party officially nominates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for 2026 presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%1%

The Workers' Party confirmed Lula's candidacy for a fourth term during a large convention in São Paulo, solidifying his position as the incumbent and leading candidate ahead of the October election.

Michelle Bolsonaro announces Senate candidacy for Federal District

Michelle Bolsonaro announced her bid for the Senate representing the Federal District, aiming to strengthen Bolsonaro supporters' presence in Congress despite tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches presidential campaign with international endorsements

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential pre-candidacy at CPAC Dallas, promising victory if elections are free and fair, which temporarily boosted his market odds.

Augusto Cury officially launches presidential campaign for 2026

Augusto Cury surges to 35%33%

Augusto Cury, a psychiatrist and bestselling author, officially launched his presidential campaign under the Avante party, gaining rapid support reflected in a market price surge from 2% to 35% within days, driven by his media presence and appeal as a centrist alternative.

Pablo Marçal officially launches presidential campaign despite legal challenges

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal officially launched his presidential campaign under the PRTB party despite being legally ineligible until 2032, causing a brief surge in market interest followed by a collapse due to legal uncertainties.

Renan Santos gains media attention as a right-wing outsider and Mission Party leader

Renan Santos dips to 7%2%

Renan Santos, founder of the Mission Party and a right-wing activist, gained media attention for his presidential bid, particularly among younger voters, though he remained a distant third in polls.

Mission Party officially nominates Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos rises to 10%3%

The newly formed Mission Party officially confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race with a platform opposing both Lula and Bolsonaro's camps.

Renan Santos launches campaign, attacks Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

At the national congress of Partido Missão, Renan Santos launched his presidential campaign with a radical right-wing discourse, criticizing both incumbent Lula and rival Flávio Bolsonaro, aiming to position himself as a distinct alternative.

Renan Santos officially nominated as presidential candidate by Partido Missão

Renan Santos rises to 7%3%

The newly formed Mission Party officially confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race with a platform opposing both Lula and Bolsonaro's camps.

Renan Santos launches presidential candidacy with anti-polarization message

Renan Santos jumps to 13%6%

Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, officially launched his presidential campaign positioning himself as an alternative to the polarized Lula-Bolsonaro dynamic, focusing on public security and economic reforms. His candidacy attracted attention among younger voters and briefly influenced market prices.

Renan Santos launches campaign attacking Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

At the Partido Missão congress, Renan Santos launched his presidential campaign with strong attacks on Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, positioning himself as a right-wing alternative and influencing his market price to stabilize around 8%.

Mission Party officially launches Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos jumps to 16%6%

The newly registered Mission Party officially launched Renan Santos as its presidential candidate for the 2026 election, marking the party's first national campaign and briefly increasing his market interest.

Lula officially launches 2026 re-election campaign in São Paulo

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 67%6%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his 2026 re-election campaign at a large event in São Paulo, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence in his victory chances.

Pablo Marçal officially announces presidential candidacy for 2026

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Businessman and digital influencer Pablo Marçal officially launched his presidential campaign under the PRTB party in early August 2026. Despite legal challenges regarding his eligibility, his announcement briefly caused a spike in market interest before his support quickly dropped to zero.

Renan Santos officially launches presidential campaign in São Paulo

Renan Santos rises to 11%4%

Renan Santos launched his campaign presenting himself as an anti-establishment alternative to Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, briefly increasing his market attention.

Renan Santos officially formalizes presidential candidacy for 2026 election

Renan Santos rises to 7%1%

Renan Santos, founder of the Mission Party, officially confirmed his candidacy for president in a virtual convention, marking his first formal entry into the 2026 presidential race. His campaign focuses on anti-establishment and right-wing renewal themes, gaining some traction among younger voters.

Missão party launches Renan Santos presidential campaign with critical speech

Renan Santos dips to 7%3%

Renan Santos officially launched his presidential campaign, criticizing both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and positioning himself as a strong alternative to the polarized main candidates.

Augusto Cury surges in polls as a third-way candidate in Brazil’s presidential race

Augusto Cury plunges to 11%24%

Psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury gained significant support in polls, rising from low single digits to around 11%, challenging the traditional Lula-Bolsonaro polarization and impacting market dynamics.

Michelle Bolsonaro confirmed as Senate candidate, steps down from party leadership

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro, former First Lady, was confirmed by the Liberal Party as a Senate candidate for the Federal District in the October 2026 elections. She stepped down from the leadership of PL Mulher amid disputes with stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, which weakened her presidential prospects and caused her market price to drop to near zero.

Renan Santos confirmed as presidential candidate by Mission Party convention

Renan Santos rises to 9%1%

The Mission Party held its convention and confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, officially entering him into the 2026 race and reflecting his growing recognition, especially among younger voters.

Renan Santos launches presidential campaign with high-profile event in São Paulo

Renan Santos launched his campaign with a major event, increasing his profile and solidifying his position as a notable third candidate, especially among youth demographics.

Michelle Bolsonaro nominated as Senate candidate despite feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Despite ongoing tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro, Michelle Bolsonaro was nominated by the Liberal Party as a Senate candidate, maintaining her political relevance and stabilizing her market presence.

Michelle Bolsonaro steps down as head of PL Mulher amid feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro resigned from her leadership role in the women's wing of the Liberal Party following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, exposing fractures within the Bolsonaro political camp and weakening her presidential prospects.

Workers’ Party formally nominates Lula and Alckmin for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The official nomination of Lula and Alckmin at the Workers’ Party convention confirmed their ticket, removing uncertainty and boosting market confidence in Lula’s re-election campaign.

Valdemar Costa Neto states Michelle Bolsonaro's Senate candidacy depends on Jair Bolsonaro's approval

The national president of the Liberal Party declared that Michelle Bolsonaro's candidacy for the Senate will only proceed if Jair Bolsonaro authorizes it, highlighting internal party dynamics and family influence.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches 2026 presidential campaign with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Ronaldo Caiado launched his presidential campaign with the Social Democratic Party, naming Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the race and influencing his market price.

Brazil's President Lula accuses U.S. of attempting to interfere in country's election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

President Lula accused the U.S. of trying to interfere in Brazil's elections, framing the dispute as a defense of sovereignty amid tensions over foreign involvement and election integrity, which influenced political narratives and market perceptions.

Polls show Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in tight 2026 presidential race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

Recent polls indicated a statistical tie or narrow lead for Lula over Flávio Bolsonaro in both first and second-round scenarios, reflecting a highly competitive and polarized election environment.

Brazilian President Lula accuses U.S. of election interference amid campaign tensions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 61%1%

President Lula accused the U.S. of attempting to interfere in Brazil's elections, a claim denied by Washington. This diplomatic dispute heightened political tensions and became a campaign issue, influencing voter perceptions and campaign narratives.

PSB officially confirms Geraldo Alckmin as Lula's vice-presidential candidate

Geraldo Alckmin dips to 0%1%

The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) officially confirmed Geraldo Alckmin as the vice-presidential candidate on Lula's ticket, reinforcing the left-wing coalition and stabilizing Alckmin's market position.

Lula's Workers' Party confirms Lula-Alckmin ticket for October election

The Workers' Party formally nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates, respectively, for the October 2026 election. This official confirmation reinforced Lula's frontrunner status and market confidence.

Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 61%4%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate for the 2026 presidential election, reinforcing the coalition and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market price to 61%.

Geraldo Alckmin formally nominated as Lula's running mate at Brazilian Socialist Party convention

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

The Brazilian Socialist Party formally nominated Geraldo Alckmin as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's vice-presidential candidate for the 2026 election, solidifying the leftist coalition and campaign ticket ahead of the vote.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

A Reuters poll from late July showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 48.8% to 42.3% in a simulated second round, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and supporting his market price increase to 66%.

Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round vote, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and contributing to his market price increase while putting pressure on Bolsonaro's campaign.

Renan Santos officially confirmed as presidential candidate for 2026

Renan Santos jumps to 14%7%

Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, was officially confirmed as a presidential candidate, positioning himself as a right-wing alternative and gaining some market attention despite low overall polling.

Lula formally nominated for re-election with Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

The Workers’ Party held its national convention on August 2, 2026, formally nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate, solidifying the leftist ticket ahead of the October election.

Geraldo Alckmin confirmed as Lula's vice-presidential running mate for 2026

Geraldo Alckmin dips to 0%1%

The PSB party officially confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reinforcing the coalition and Lula's campaign strength.

Geraldo Alckmin confirmed as vice-presidential candidate on Lula's ticket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

The Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) officially confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, solidifying the coalition and supporting Lula's campaign.

PSB officially confirms Geraldo Alckmin as Lula's running mate for 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Brazilian Socialist Party officially confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's running mate for the 2026 presidential election, solidifying the leftist coalition and boosting Lula's market position.

Senator Tereza Cristina admits possibility of presidential run in 2026

After declining an offer to be Flávio Bolsonaro's vice-presidential candidate, Senator Tereza Cristina publicly acknowledged the possibility of running for president herself, adding complexity to the right-wing candidacy landscape.

Romeu Zema officially nominated as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

In late July 2026, Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, was officially nominated as the presidential candidate for the Novo party. His entry briefly increased his market price, but he remained a minor candidate nationally with limited broader appeal.

Lula's Workers' Party confirms Lula-Alckmin ticket for October election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 65%11%

The Workers' Party formally nominated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Geraldo Alckmin as their presidential and vice-presidential candidates, solidifying the leftist coalition and campaign ticket ahead of the vote.

Jair Bolsonaro arrested and barred from running, endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 0%36%

Former president Jair Bolsonaro was arrested and legally barred from running for office until 2030, endorsing his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate, consolidating the Bolsonaro political base behind Flávio.

Romeu Zema confirmed as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema was confirmed as the presidential candidate for the Novo party, marking his entry into the 2026 race. His candidacy added to the diversity of options on the right and influenced his market price slightly.

Romeu Zema officially registers presidential candidacy for 2026

Romeu Zema drops to 0%8%

Former governor Romeu Zema registered his candidacy for president with the NOVO party, marking his formal entry into the race and influencing his market price to rise slightly before declining to zero by August.

Ronaldo Caiado launches presidential bid targeting Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as an alternative to the polarized Lula and Bolsonaro camps. His campaign launch included public criticisms of Flávio Bolsonaro and attempts to appeal to disillusioned voters, though his market share remained low.

Party Novo officially nominates Romeu Zema as presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

The Novo party officially confirmed former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema as its candidate for president in the 2026 election during a national convention in Brasília. This formalization marked Zema's entry into the presidential race.

Novo party officially nominates Romeu Zema as presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

The Novo party confirmed former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema as its candidate for president, marking his formal entry into the race and causing a slight rise in his market support.

Novo party officially confirms Romeu Zema as presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 4%3%

The Novo party held its national convention and officially confirmed former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema as its candidate for the 2026 presidential election, marking his formal entry and causing a slight rise in his market price.

Romeu Zema confirmed as presidential candidate by Partido Novo

Romeu Zema dips to 0%1%

The Partido Novo officially confirmed former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema as its candidate for president in the 2026 elections, marking his formal entry into the race.

Romeu Zema officially announced as Partido Novo presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

The Partido Novo officially confirmed Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, as its candidate for the 2026 presidential election. Zema's candidacy represented an alternative to the political polarization, impacting his market price.

Romeu Zema officially launched as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 4%3%

The Novo party officially nominated former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema as its candidate for president in the 2026 election, marking the party's formal entry into the presidential race and increasing his visibility as a right-wing alternative.

Ronaldo Caiado launches presidential candidacy

Ronaldo Caiado drops to 0%5%

Ronaldo Caiado, a veteran conservative politician and former governor of Goiás, officially launched his presidential campaign, but his market price declined over time, reflecting limited electoral traction.

Ronaldo Caiado criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign amid controversies

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

Ronaldo Caiado publicly criticized Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign, highlighting internal right-wing divisions and impacting Bolsonaro’s market support.

Partido Novo officially nominates Romeu Zema as presidential candidate for 2026

Romeu Zema was officially launched as the presidential candidate by Partido Novo during their national convention, marking his first presidential run and introducing a center-right alternative to the race.

Romeu Zema officially launches presidential campaign for 2026

Romeu Zema dips to 0%1%

Former governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, officially launched his presidential campaign representing the Novo party, aiming to present a center-right alternative, though his market support remained minimal.

Romeu Zema officially nominated as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, was officially nominated as the presidential candidate for the Novo party, marking his formal entry into the race and causing a brief rise in his market price from 1% to 5%.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches 2026 presidential bid as PSD candidate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 3%2%

Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado was formally launched as the PSD's presidential candidate, positioning himself as a center-right alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro, though his market share remained low.

Romeu Zema officially confirmed as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema was officially confirmed as the Novo party candidate for president in the 2026 election, marking his formal entry and causing a slight rise in his market price.

Romeu Zema launches presidential campaign at Novo party convention

Romeu Zema dips to 0%1%

Former Governor Romeu Zema officially launched his presidential campaign at the Novo party convention in Brasília, marking his entry as a candidate and influencing the market by adding another contender to the race.

São Paulo's União Brasil and PP endorse Flávio Bolsonaro despite national neutrality

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

The São Paulo state branches of União Brasil and PP formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy, defying the national federation's expected neutrality and signaling regional support that influenced market confidence.

Pablo Marçal barred from debates, TV time, and public campaign funds by Brazil's Electoral Court

Pablo Marçal plunges to 1%49%

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court barred Pablo Marçal from participating in debates, receiving free media slots, and public campaign funds due to legal questions about his eligibility, severely limiting his campaign visibility and market support.

Liberal Party nominates Alfredo Gaspar as Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro selected Alfredo Gaspar, a senator from Alagoas, as his vice-presidential running mate to broaden his appeal and consolidate support ahead of the election, signaling a strategic move to attract centrist voters.

Romeu Zema officially nominated as NOVO party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema, governor of Minas Gerais, was officially nominated by the NOVO party as its candidate for president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race. His campaign launch was held in Minas Gerais, his home state, aiming to leverage regional support.

Ronaldo Caiado confirmed as PSD presidential candidate with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado was officially confirmed as the PSD candidate for president, with Gilberto Kassab as his vice. His campaign focused on security and fiscal responsibility, influencing his market price positively.

Romeu Zema officially launched as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema jumps to 10%6%

Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, was officially launched as the presidential candidate of the Novo party, emphasizing anti-corruption and economic liberalism, though his national polling remained low.

Bolsonaro's son launches presidential campaign with international endorsements

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro began his official presidential campaign with support from right-wing leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighting his international backing despite internal party controversies.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches presidential campaign with support from international right-wing figures

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign, highlighting endorsements from figures like Argentina’s Javier Milei and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, aiming to energize his base ahead of the election.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches presidential bid with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado officially launched his presidential campaign with party leader Gilberto Kassab as his running mate, positioning himself as a center-right alternative to the polarized Lula and Bolsonaro camps, though his market share remained low.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches 2026 presidential bid with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado drops to 0%5%

Ronaldo Caiado was officially launched as the PSD's presidential candidate, positioning himself as a center-right alternative to the polarized Lula and Bolsonaro camps, though his market share remained low.

Ronaldo Caiado officially nominated as PSD presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

The PSD held its national convention and officially nominated former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado as its candidate for president, marking his formal entry into the 2026 presidential race.

PT confirms Lula's candidacy and Alckmin as vice for 2026 election

The Workers' Party officially confirmed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy for re-election with Geraldo Alckmin as his vice-presidential running mate, reinforcing the incumbent ticket and Lula's leading position in the race.

PSD formally nominates Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%3%

On July 26, 2026, the PSD officially nominated Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate during the party’s national convention in São Paulo, consolidating his campaign and causing a market price increase.

Brazil denies visas to US officials seeking meetings on election integrity

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%7%

Brazilian government denied visas to two US officials aiming to discuss election integrity, citing risk of political exploitation amid tensions over election interference claims, impacting diplomatic relations and election narratives.

Renan Santos officially formalizes presidential candidacy with Mission Party

Renan Santos dips to 7%2%

On July 20, 2026, Renan Santos's candidacy was officially formalized by the Mission Party during an early virtual convention, marking his entry as a right-wing candidate focused on younger voters, which contributed to his market presence despite lower overall support.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially nominated as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro was officially nominated by the Liberal Party as its presidential candidate, consolidating his position as the main right-wing challenger to Lula. This nomination was accompanied by campaign launch events and increased media coverage, boosting his market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces running mate Alfredo Gaspar and campaign plan

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate and launched a campaign plan focused on women's internet access and AI, aiming to broaden his appeal and consolidate his position as the main right-wing candidate.

Ronaldo Caiado formally nominated as PSD presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

The Social Democratic Party held its national convention and officially nominated Ronaldo Caiado as its candidate for president, reinforcing his campaign and presence in the race as a right-wing alternative.

Ronaldo Caiado officially confirmed as PSD presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Ronaldo Caiado was officially confirmed as the PSD candidate for president, positioning himself as a center-right alternative and fragmenting the right-wing vote, which could affect the dynamics between Lula and Bolsonaro camps.

PSD officially nominates Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) confirmed former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado as its 2026 presidential candidate, solidifying his campaign and increasing his market presence.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed as Liberal Party presidential candidate

The Liberal Party officially confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate at a convention, solidifying his candidacy despite coalition struggles and ongoing controversies.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially confirmed as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 41%11%

The Liberal Party held its national convention and officially confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, solidifying his position and boosting his market price to over 40%.

Party conventions nominate Bolsonaro, Caiado, and Zema for presidency

The Liberal Party officially nominated Flávio Bolsonaro, the PSD nominated Ronaldo Caiado, and the Novo party launched Romeu Zema's presidential campaigns, consolidating key right-wing candidates and influencing market dynamics.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launched as PSD presidential candidate for 2026

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Former Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado was officially nominated by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) as its candidate for president in the 2026 election, positioning himself as a center-right alternative to the polarized contest between Lula and Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially chosen as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro was officially confirmed as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate at the party convention, consolidating his position as the main right-wing challenger and causing a significant rise in his market price.

Camilo Santana integrated into Lula's campaign core and considered potential successor

Camilo Santana dips to 0%1%

Camilo Santana, former governor and current Minister of Education, was appointed to Lula's campaign coordination team, signaling his importance in the campaign and potential as a fallback presidential candidate if needed.

Flávio Bolsonaro's 2026 presidential campaign officialized in São Paulo

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign with Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, marking a key moment in the election cycle and boosting his market price to 28%.

Flávio Bolsonaro officializes presidential campaign with running mate Alfredo Gaspar

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro formalized his presidential campaign and announced his running mate, signaling a consolidated right-wing challenge and impacting market pricing for his candidacy.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches presidential campaign with surprise running mate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 32%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign with Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, a choice that surprised political observers. This event marked the formal start of his campaign and contributed to his rising market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro pushes forward with presidential campaign amid legal troubles

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 26%2%

Despite facing fresh legal challenges and internal family disputes, Flávio Bolsonaro continued his campaign efforts, maintaining his position as the main right-wing candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro faces legal troubles and uneasy truce with stepmother during campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 24%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign was marked by fresh legal challenges and a public family dispute with Michelle Bolsonaro, affecting perceptions of his campaign's stability.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches campaign with AI video of Jair Bolsonaro and international support

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 24%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro launched his presidential campaign with a video using AI to simulate his father's support and received backing from international figures, reinforcing his campaign despite internal challenges.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launches 2026 presidential campaign with running mate Alfredo Gaspar

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro formalized his presidential campaign in São Paulo, announcing Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate and outlining a campaign plan to broaden his appeal and consolidate his position as the main right-wing candidate.

Bolsonaro family feud intensifies as Michelle Bolsonaro gains political influence

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro's rising influence within the Liberal Party and her potential as a presidential candidate caused tensions with Flávio Bolsonaro, impacting the dynamics of the Bolsonaro political faction and the right-wing vote.

Ronaldo Caiado launches presidential campaign targeting Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%3%

Ronaldo Caiado officially launched his presidential bid, positioning himself as a center-right alternative and criticizing both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, which briefly raised his market presence.

Michelle Bolsonaro absent from Flávio Bolsonaro's nomination event amid family tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro did not attend Flávio Bolsonaro's nomination event, highlighting internal family and party tensions that have affected the right-wing coalition's unity and market confidence in Flávio's campaign.

Flavio Bolsonaro officially nominated as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%6%

Flavio Bolsonaro was officially nominated by the Liberal Party as its presidential candidate, receiving endorsements from international right-wing figures and consolidating his position as Lula's main challenger, despite legal and political challenges.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches presidential campaign with international endorsements

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%5%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign at a Liberal Party convention in São Paulo, receiving support from right-wing leaders including Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, boosting his profile despite internal challenges.

Flávio Bolsonaro formally launches presidential campaign with international endorsements

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign, highlighting support from international figures like Argentine President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reinforcing his campaign momentum.

Michelle Bolsonaro endorses Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy in a video message, aiming to mobilize women voters and evangelical support, though her own market price remained low due to internal family disputes.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 37%11%

Flávio Bolsonaro was officially nominated as the Liberal Party candidate for president, energizing his campaign with international endorsements and increasing his market probability significantly.

PL convention nominates Flávio Bolsonaro for president; PSD and Novo nominate Caiado and Zema

In July 2026, the Liberal Party (PL) officially nominated Flávio Bolsonaro as their presidential candidate, while the PSD and Novo parties nominated Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema respectively, formalizing the main opposition candidates and shaping the final electoral contest.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%8%

The Liberal Party confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate in a convention in São Paulo, marking his formal entry into the race and solidifying his leadership of the Bolsonarist right-wing movement. This event increased his visibility and campaign infrastructure.

Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign officially launched

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign was formalized in July 2026, consolidating his position as the main right-wing challenger to Lula and maintaining his market price around 25%.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially nominated as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 41%39%

Flávio Bolsonaro was proclaimed the Liberal Party's candidate for the 2026 presidential election with the endorsement of his imprisoned father, Jair Bolsonaro, energizing his campaign and causing a significant rise in his market probability.

Michelle Bolsonaro launches Senate bid as part of PL's electoral strategy

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro was nominated as a candidate for the Senate by the Liberal Party, aiming to strengthen the Bolsonaro political bloc in Congress despite her low presidential market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially confirmed as Liberal Party presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 35%7%

The Liberal Party officially confirmed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate for the 2026 election, consolidating his position as the main right-wing contender and impacting market dynamics.

Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed as presidential candidate at Liberal Party convention

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign at the Liberal Party convention on July 25, 2026, with his running mate Alfredo Gaspar. This formalization reinforced his position as the main right-wing candidate despite coalition struggles and a fragmented opposition.

Flávio Bolsonaro's Liberal Party convention features AI-generated video of Jair Bolsonaro endorsing candidacy

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 24%2%

At the PL convention, a video of former President Jair Bolsonaro created with artificial intelligence was shown endorsing Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, stirring controversy and media attention.

Michelle Bolsonaro nominated as Senate candidate by Liberal Party despite family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro was nominated by the Liberal Party as a Senate candidate, aiming to strengthen Bolsonaro supporters' presence in the Senate, despite ongoing public disputes with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro proclaimed presidential candidate at Liberal Party convention

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro was officially proclaimed as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate in a convention attended by supporters and international figures, solidifying his position as the main right-wing challenger to Lula.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches official presidential campaign with endorsements from Milei and Netanyahu

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro inaugurated his official presidential campaign, receiving support from right-wing figures such as Argentinian President Javier Milei and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aiming to consolidate his position as the main right-wing candidate.

Ronaldo Caiado launches presidential bid targeting Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Ronaldo Caiado drops to 0%5%

Ronaldo Caiado officially launched his presidential campaign, criticizing both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, and highlighting controversies affecting their campaigns, which influenced his market position and introduced a new dynamic in the race.

Romeu Zema rejects vice-presidential offer from Flávio Bolsonaro

Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%

Romeu Zema publicly rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming his independent presidential run and maintaining his market presence as a right-wing alternative.

Liberal Party convention features AI-generated video of Jair Bolsonaro endorsing Flávio

Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 28%16%

During the Liberal Party convention on July 25, 2026, an artificial intelligence-generated video of former President Jair Bolsonaro was shown endorsing his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy, energizing supporters and impacting Flávio's market position positively.

Liberal Party proclaims Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate in São Paulo convention

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%12%

The Liberal Party held a convention in São Paulo officially proclaiming Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, with attendance from key supporters and international figures like Argentina's President Javier Milei. This formalization solidified his position as the main right-wing challenger to Lula and caused his market price to rise to around 40%.

Flavio Bolsonaro nominated as Liberal Party candidate for 2026 presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%6%

Flavio Bolsonaro was formally nominated by the Liberal Party as its presidential candidate, consolidating his position as the main right-wing challenger to Lula and influencing market dynamics.

Flávio Bolsonaro nominated as Liberal Party candidate for 2026 presidential election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 38%14%

The Liberal Party officially nominated Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, solidifying his position as the main right-wing contender and boosting his market support significantly.

Liberal Party officially nominates Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 39%13%

The Liberal Party held its national convention and officially nominated Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, reinforcing his position as the main right-wing contender and causing a significant increase in his market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched presidential campaign with support from Netanyahu and Milei

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%9%

Flávio Bolsonaro inaugurated his official presidential campaign, receiving endorsements from international right-wing figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentine President Javier Milei, enhancing his campaign's visibility and appeal to conservative voters.

Party conventions held for Bolsonaro, Caiado, and Zema nominations

The Liberal Party nominated Flávio Bolsonaro on July 25, followed by the PSD nominating Ronaldo Caiado on July 26, and the Novo party launching Romeu Zema's campaign on July 27. These formal nominations marked the consolidation of key right-wing candidates ahead of the October election.

Romeu Zema to be officially confirmed as Novo party presidential candidate

The Novo party planned a national convention on July 27, 2026, to officially confirm Romeu Zema as their presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the race and maintaining his market price at 1%.

Flávio Bolsonaro's false claims about Brazil's electronic voting machines trigger legal challenge

Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%

Flávio Bolsonaro made statements questioning the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system, leading to a complaint filed with the Superior Electoral Court and criticism from other presidential candidates, negatively impacting his campaign's credibility.

US tariffs on Brazil strengthen Lula against Bolsonaro's son in upcoming elections

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 27%1%

The imposition of US tariffs on Brazilian exports, linked to Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign ties with the Trump administration, negatively affected his polling and market support, benefiting Lula's position.

Flávio Bolsonaro invites Michelle Bolsonaro to join 2026 campaign efforts

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly invited Michelle Bolsonaro to collaborate in the right-wing political campaign for 2026, aiming to unify conservative forces ahead of the election.

Flávio Bolsonaro calls for international election observers amid voting machine controversy

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 24%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro urged foreign ambassadors to send observers to Brazil's elections, repeating unsubstantiated claims about voting machine fraud, which heightened political tensions and affected his campaign dynamics.

Mission Party officially confirms Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos rises to 10%3%

The newly formed Mission Party officially confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race with a platform opposing both Lula and Bolsonaro's camps. This caused a brief rise in his market price to around 10%.

Renan Santos candidacy officially confirmed at Partido Missão convention

Renan Santos rises to 11%1%

Partido Missão held a convention on July 20, 2026, officially confirming Renan Santos as their presidential candidate, reinforcing his position as a right-wing alternative and contributing to his market price stabilization.

Partido Missão officially nominates Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos rises to 8%2%

On July 20, 2026, the Partido Missão officially nominated Renan Santos as its presidential candidate in a virtual convention, marking his formal entry into the race. This event briefly boosted his market price as he gained recognition, though his overall support remained limited compared to frontrunners.

Political parties hold conventions to determine presidential candidates

Political parties held conventions and internal processes to finalize their presidential candidates, including Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, and others, marking the official start of the campaign period.

Renan Santos formalizes presidential candidacy ahead of schedule

Renan Santos rises to 8%2%

The Mission Party officially nominated Renan Santos as its presidential candidate in a virtual convention, increasing his visibility and causing a rise in his market price from 6% to 8%.

Renan Santos officially formalizes presidential candidacy for 2026 election

Renan Santos rises to 7%1%

Renan Santos, co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement and president of the Mission Party, officially formalized his candidacy for president, marking the first official party convention candidacy announcement and causing a slight market interest.

Renan Santos officially launches presidential campaign with anti-polarization message

Renan Santos dips to 3%4%

Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, officially launched his presidential campaign emphasizing opposition to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro polarization. His campaign focused on social media and debates, gaining traction among younger voters and briefly increasing his market price before a decline.

Missão party officially nominates Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos was officially nominated by the Missão party as its presidential candidate, emphasizing his anti-polarization stance and appeal to younger voters, which briefly increased his market presence.

São Paulo state parties endorse Flávio Bolsonaro despite national neutrality

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 28%5%

The São Paulo directories of União Brasil and PP formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy, defying the national federation's expected neutrality and providing a boost to his campaign in a key state, influencing market sentiment positively.

Mission Party holds national convention, officially nominates Renan Santos for president

Renan Santos rises to 11%4%

The Mission Party held its national convention and officially confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, solidifying his campaign and stabilizing his market position as a right-wing alternative.

Renan Santos launches presidential campaign with anti-polarization message

Renan Santos rises to 11%3%

Renan Santos officially launched his presidential campaign emphasizing a third-way alternative to the polarized Lula-Bolsonaro dynamic, focusing on public security and economic reforms, briefly boosting his market presence.

Mission Party officially nominates Renan Santos as presidential candidate

Renan Santos plunges to 14%36%

The newly formed Mission Party confirmed Renan Santos as its presidential candidate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race with a platform opposing both Lula and Bolsonaro camps, briefly influencing his market price.

Lula formally endorsed for reelection at PDT convention

The Democratic Labour Party officially endorsed Lula's 2026 reelection bid, consolidating his political base and signaling strong party support ahead of the election.

Renan Santos officially nominated as presidential candidate by Partido Missão

Renan Santos plunges to 15%35%

Renan Santos was officially confirmed as the presidential candidate for the newly formed Partido Missão in July 2026, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race. His candidacy attracted attention particularly among younger voters, briefly influencing his market support before it declined.

Renan Santos officially registered as presidential candidate by Mission Party

Renan Santos rises to 9%3%

Renan Santos' candidacy was formalized by the Mission Party, marking his official entry into the presidential race and causing a modest increase in his market price.

Renan Santos officially confirmed as Mission Party presidential candidate

Renan Santos rises to 11%4%

Renan Santos was officially nominated by the newly registered Mission Party as its presidential candidate, gaining attention as a right-wing alternative and briefly increasing his market support among younger voters.

Renan Santos confirmed as presidential candidate by Partido Missão convention

Renan Santos rises to 7%1%

Partido Missão held a convention officially confirming Renan Santos as their presidential candidate, reinforcing his position as a right-wing alternative and stabilizing his market price around 7%.

Lula receives unanimous endorsement from PDT for 2026 reelection bid

At the PDT convention, Lula was formally endorsed for reelection and issued a challenge to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling strong party support and international political positioning.

Renan Santos officially chosen as presidential candidate by Partido Missão

Renan Santos dips to 7%3%

Renan Santos was officially chosen by the newly registered Partido Missão as its presidential candidate for the 2026 election, marking the party's first national campaign and his entry as a right-wing alternative candidate.

Lula launches final reelection campaign amid rising tensions with US over tariffs

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%5%

President Lula officially launched his campaign for a fourth term, emphasizing national sovereignty and responding to US tariffs, which helped solidify his lead and market confidence in his candidacy.

U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, strengthening Lula's campaign narrative

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%6%

The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on Brazilian products, which Lula's campaign used to emphasize defense of Brazilian sovereignty and contrast with Bolsonaro's alignment with foreign pressure, boosting Lula's market price from 51% to 57%.

Romeu Zema officially nominated as Novo party presidential candidate

Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%

Romeu Zema, former governor of Minas Gerais, was officially nominated by the Partido Novo as its candidate for the 2026 presidential election in mid-July 2026. This formal nomination briefly increased his market support before it declined to zero by early September.

Poll shows Lula extends lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 60%4%

A poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widening his lead over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro as the election approached, reflecting Flávio's struggles with internal family tensions and legal challenges, which weakened his campaign momentum.

Michelle Bolsonaro emerges as influential political figure amid speculation

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

A poll by Ideia Big Data showed Michelle Bolsonaro as Brazil's most powerful woman according to voters, with 15.4% naming her unprompted, reflecting her political weight despite fluctuating candidacy prospects and market price.

Poll shows Lula maintains steady lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of October election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

A Quaest poll commissioned by brokerage Genial showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a steady lead over Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner and influencing market prices accordingly.

Lula Expands Lead as Flávio Bolsonaro Faces Family Tensions, Poll Shows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 63%1%

A new poll revealed Lula widening his lead ahead of the October election while Flávio Bolsonaro struggled with internal family conflicts, weakening his campaign and strengthening Lula's market position.

Quaest poll shows Lula opens 8-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 62%5%

The Quaest poll indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 45% to 37% in a runoff scenario, marking a widening lead and boosting market confidence in Lula's chances.

Michelle Bolsonaro gains 42% support in dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro, poll shows

A Quaest poll showed Michelle Bolsonaro with 42% support in a dispute against Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting her political influence within the right-wing electorate and explaining minor price recoveries.

Poll shows Lula opens 8-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenario

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 8 points in a runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and impacting market confidence.

Michelle Bolsonaro gains support amid family disputes and political maneuvering

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 4%3%

Michelle Bolsonaro's public disagreements with Flávio Bolsonaro and increased political activity raised her profile, causing a brief rise in her market price to 4%, though she remained a minor candidate.

Michelle Bolsonaro shows growing support amid dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

A poll showed Michelle Bolsonaro gaining 42% support in a dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting internal family tensions and her rising political profile, which influenced her market price.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from PL Mulher leadership amid feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro stepped down from the leadership of the women's wing of the Liberal Party following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, signaling fractures within the Bolsonaro political bloc and causing her market price to drop from 2% to 0%.

Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in latest Quaest poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 61%4%

A Quaest poll showed President Lula increasing his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October election, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and impacting market prices accordingly.

Michelle Bolsonaro gains political support amid dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro gained notable support in the right-wing electorate amid a public dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro, increasing her political profile and market price slightly as a potential alternative candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro selects Alfredo Gaspar as vice presidential candidate

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 24%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Senator Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, aiming to broaden his appeal to centrist voters and strengthen his campaign, which helped stabilize and slightly improve his market position.

Futura Inteligência poll shows Lula winning against main rivals in second round

Futura Inteligência poll confirmed Lula's lead in second-round scenarios against Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, reinforcing his dominant position in the race.

Brazil Supreme Court Justice bars Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 20%2%

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes banned Senator Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, for 90 days, covering the election period. This judicial decision complicated Flávio's campaign by limiting communication with his key political figure, impacting market confidence in his candidacy.

Supreme Court bars Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro for 90 days

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes barred Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, for 90 days due to violations of house arrest conditions. This restriction limited campaign coordination and was portrayed by Flávio's allies as judicial interference, negatively impacting his campaign.

Flávio Bolsonaro maintains candidacy despite scandals, polling at 23%

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 23%5%

Despite corruption scandals and market price drops, Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed his presidential run and maintained significant polling support, reflecting ongoing polarization in the election race.

Flávio Bolsonaro announces Alfredo Gaspar as running mate

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 24%1%

Flávio Bolsonaro announced Alfredo Gaspar, federal deputy for Alagoas, as his vice-presidential running mate, aiming to strengthen his campaign infrastructure and electoral appeal.

Camilo Santana, PT Senate leader, advocates alliance to avoid electoral damage in Minas Gerais

Camilo Santana, new PT leader in the Senate, suggested supporting a non-PT candidate allied with the government in Minas Gerais to avoid electoral damage, reflecting strategic party moves ahead of the election.

Camilo Santana suggests PT avoid own candidate in Minas Gerais to strengthen Lula's campaign

Camilo Santana dips to 0%1%

Senator and former Education Minister Camilo Santana advised the PT to avoid running a candidate in Minas Gerais to prevent electoral setbacks and to support Lula's broader campaign strategy.

Camilo Santana assumes leadership of PT in the Senate and joins Lula's campaign coordination

Camilo Santana dips to 0%1%

Camilo Santana was chosen as the new leader of the Workers' Party in the Senate and accepted an invitation to join the national coordination of Lula's re-election campaign, increasing his political influence and campaign role.

Flávio Bolsonaro appeals to U.S. to delay tariffs amid election concerns

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 26%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to Washington to request a delay in U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods, aiming to mitigate economic fallout that could harm his campaign. This move highlighted the election's international economic dimension and political tensions.

Michelle Bolsonaro signals possible Senate run amid internal party disputes

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%3%

Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady, indicated readiness for a Senate candidacy and stepped down from PL Mulher leadership following disputes with stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, signaling fractures within the Bolsonaro political bloc and affecting her market support.

Flávio Bolsonaro requests US delay on tariffs until after Brazilian election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%6%

Flávio Bolsonaro publicly asked US President Trump to delay imposing tariffs on Brazil until after the October 2026 election, aiming to avoid economic disruptions that could affect his campaign.

Flávio Bolsonaro asks US to delay tariffs on Brazil until after 2026 election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%7%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro requested the US government to postpone imposing tariffs on Brazilian imports until after the October 2026 election, aiming to avoid political disruption and maintain campaign stability, which influenced market perceptions of his candidacy.

Flávio Bolsonaro requests US President Trump to delay tariffs on Brazil until after election

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 25%4%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro met with senior US officials and requested a delay in US tariffs on Brazil until after the 2026 election, amid accusations from President Lula that Flávio was lobbying Washington to impose tariffs, affecting political dynamics and market perceptions.

Flávio Bolsonaro asks Trump to delay tariffs on Brazil until after election

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro requested U.S. President Donald Trump to postpone tariffs on Brazilian products until after the October 2026 election, highlighting the political sensitivity of trade issues and impacting Bolsonaro's campaign narrative.

Ronaldo Caiado reacts to Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy announcement

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 2%1%

Following Flávio Bolsonaro's announcement, Ronaldo Caiado publicly acknowledged the decision and reaffirmed his own candidacy, highlighting the fragmented right-wing field.

Camilo Santana elected leader of PT in the Senate

Camilo Santana dips to 0%1%

Camilo Santana was elected as the leader of the Workers' Party in the Senate, consolidating his political influence but he publicly ruled out running for president, which impacted his market price negatively.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from party leadership amid feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro resigned from the leadership of the women's wing of the Liberal Party following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting fractures within the Bolsonaro political camp.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from PL Mulher leadership amid feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro stepped down from the leadership of the women's wing of the Liberal Party following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, signaling fractures within the Bolsonaro political bloc and affecting her market support.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns as head of PL Mulher, deepening Bolsonaro family rift

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro resigned from her leadership position in the Liberal Party's women's wing, highlighting internal conflicts within the Bolsonaro family and causing uncertainty about her presidential prospects.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accuses stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of humiliating her amid family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro, former first lady, publicly accused her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of humiliating her, revealing a family feud that exposed fractures within the Bolsonaro political bloc. This dispute affected right-wing unity and dampened Michelle's presidential prospects, reflected in her low market support.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes stepson Flávio Bolsonaro amid family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of humiliating her, revealing a family rift that could impact right-wing voter cohesion ahead of the election.

Lula's market price surges amid positive polls and campaign developments

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%9%

Following a series of positive polls and campaign developments, Lula's market price surged to 61%, reflecting his consolidation as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 presidential election.

Michelle Bolsonaro rules out running as Romeu Zema’s vice-presidential pick

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%

In early July 2026, Michelle Bolsonaro publicly ruled out running as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Romeu Zema, leaving the right-wing opposition fragmented and affecting her market position negatively.

Workers' Party officially nominates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for 2026 presidential election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 65%4%

The Workers' Party confirmed Lula's candidacy for a fourth term during a large convention event, solidifying his position as the frontrunner and causing his market price to rise.

PT officially nominates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for 2026 presidential re-election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

The Workers' Party held its national convention confirming Lula's candidacy and Geraldo Alckmin as his vice, solidifying the coalition and Lula's frontrunner status ahead of the election.

PT confirms Lula's candidacy for 2026 presidential re-election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%3%

The Workers' Party officially confirmed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy for a fourth term, solidifying his position as the incumbent candidate and reinforcing his market strength.

Lula officially confirms re-election bid for 2026 presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 50%9%

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth term, consolidating his position as the frontrunner and reassuring moderate voters, which stabilized and slightly increased his market odds.

Renan Santos announces military reserve officer as vice-presidential running mate

Renan Santos rises to 10%1%

Renan Santos, a right-wing activist and third-way candidate, announced his vice-presidential running mate, signaling campaign consolidation and contributing to a modest rise in his market support among younger voters.

Lula officially launches presidential bid for fourth term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 66%5%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was officially nominated by the Workers' Party as their presidential candidate for the 2026 election, solidifying his campaign and reinforcing his market position as the frontrunner.

São Paulo's União Brasil and PP endorse Flávio Bolsonaro despite national neutrality

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 26%4%

The São Paulo state branches of União Brasil and PP formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy ahead of the national convention deadline, defying the national leadership's expected neutrality. This local support bolstered Flávio's campaign infrastructure and market position.

Poll shows 82% of Bolsonaro supporters reject Michelle Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%2%

A poll revealed strong rejection of Michelle Bolsonaro as a presidential candidate among Bolsonaro supporters, significantly weakening her market prospects and contributing to price decline.

Gilberto Kassab confirmed as vice presidential running mate for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

The PSD confirmed party leader Gilberto Kassab as the vice presidential candidate alongside Ronaldo Caiado, strengthening Caiado's campaign with an experienced political figure and signaling a serious bid for the presidency.

Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in presidential runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

A Reuters poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential presidential runoff, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner despite Flávio's gains earlier in the year.

AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenario

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%7%

A poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 46.3% to 36.6% in a potential second-round runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and impacting market prices positively for Lula.

Ronaldo Caiado officially nominated as PSD presidential candidate

Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%

Ronaldo Caiado was confirmed as the Social Democratic Party’s candidate for president, solidifying his campaign and causing a brief increase in his market support before declining.

Ronaldo Caiado officially launches 2026 presidential bid with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Caiado was confirmed as the PSD presidential candidate, positioning himself as a center-right alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro, though his market share remained low.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in second-round scenario

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 62%6%

A Reuters poll showed Lula widening his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, lifting Lula's market price from 56% to 62% and reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Ronaldo Caiado selects Gilberto Kassab as running mate for presidential bid

Ronaldo Caiado named party chief Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential candidate after failing to secure broader alliances, signaling a divided right-wing and limiting his market impact.

Supreme Court justice bans Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting Jair Bolsonaro during campaign

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 26%4%

Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes barred Flávio Bolsonaro from visiting his imprisoned father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, for 90 days, limiting campaign coordination and causing political controversy affecting Flávio's campaign.

Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 6 points in second round

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%7%

A major poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 6 points in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and contributing to his market price recovery and increase.

Atlas/Bloomberg poll confirms Lula leads all second-round scenarios including against Michelle Bolsonaro

Atlas/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading decisively in all tested second-round matchups, including against Michelle Bolsonaro, who was considered a potential replacement candidate for Flávio Bolsonaro.

Ronaldo Caiado names Gilberto Kassab as vice-presidential running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%

Ronaldo Caiado announced Gilberto Kassab, PSD party leader, as his vice-presidential candidate, aiming to unify the party and strengthen his campaign as a center-right alternative in the 2026 election.

AtlasIntel poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in first round of 2026 election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 64%4%

A major poll by AtlasIntel indicated Lula maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and market confidence in his victory chances.

Ronaldo Caiado announces Gilberto Kassab as vice-presidential running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

Ronaldo Caiado announced Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential candidate to strengthen his campaign, but this did not significantly improve his polling or market position, which remained low.

Ronaldo Caiado confirmed as PSD presidential candidate with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado was officially confirmed as the PSD candidate for president, with Gilberto Kassab as his vice. This formalization marked his return to the presidential race after decades and positioned him as a right-wing alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro's son.

Caiado picks PSD chief Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

Caiado announced Gilberto Kassab as his vice‑presidential running mate, but the move failed to broaden his appeal, coinciding with a drop in his market price from 2 % to 1 % by early July.

Ronaldo Caiado confirms Gilberto Kassab as running mate for 2026 presidential campaign

Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 9%6%

Ronaldo Caiado, the Social Democratic Party's presidential candidate, announced Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential running mate, signaling a formal campaign launch and increasing his visibility in the race.

Polls show Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in presidential runoff race

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 61%4%

A July poll indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in the likely runoff, reinforcing Lula's position as the front-runner and influencing market prices accordingly.

Ronaldo Caiado announces presidential campaign with Gilberto Kassab as running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Ronaldo Caiado was officially launched as the Social Democratic Party's presidential candidate with party leader Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential running mate, marking his formal entry into the 2026 race.

Atlas/Bloomberg poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 6 points in second round

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%5%

A major poll released by Atlas/Bloomberg indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 6.5 points in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's front-runner status and causing a rise in his market price while Flávio's support remained under pressure.

Superior Electoral Court disqualifies Jair Bolsonaro from 2026 election

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court officially declared Jair Bolsonaro ineligible to run in the 2026 election due to abuse of political power, solidifying Flávio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate and impacting market dynamics.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns as head of PL Mulher amid feud with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%3%

Michelle Bolsonaro stepped down from her leadership role in the Liberal Party's women's wing following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, highlighting internal fractures in the Bolsonaro camp and impacting their electoral prospects.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes stepson Flávio Bolsonaro amid family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro accused her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and humiliation, exposing a public family rift that weakened her presidential prospects and caused her market price to drop.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from leadership of PL Mulher amid clash with Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro stepped down from her leadership role in the women's wing of the Liberal Party following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, weakening her political position and causing her market price to fall to near zero.

Michelle Bolsonaro steps down as head of PL Mulher amid family rift

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 0%52%

Michelle Bolsonaro resigned from her leadership role in the Liberal Party's women's wing following a public dispute with her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, weakening her presidential prospects and causing her market price to fall to zero.

Michelle Bolsonaro departs PL Mulher leadership amid family tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro's departure from PL Mulher leadership added uncertainty to the right-wing campaign, contributing to her market price remaining low around 2%.

Brazil's Supreme Federal Court convicts Jair Bolsonaro of coup attempt

Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 3%33%

On September 11, 2025, Brazil's Supreme Federal Court convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a military coup to overturn the 2022 election results, sentencing him to 27 years and three months in prison. This severely damaged Bolsonaro's political prospects and led to his endorsement of his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate.

Brazil bars Jair Bolsonaro from running in 2026 election

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court declared former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible to run for public office until 2030 due to abuse of political power, effectively removing him from the 2026 race and elevating his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the right-wing candidate.

Michelle Bolsonaro resigns from PL Mulher leadership amid family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro resigned from the leadership of the women's wing of the Liberal Party, highlighting internal family conflicts and fracturing the right-wing coalition, which affected her market prospects and those of Flávio Bolsonaro.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirms Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%11%

Incumbent President Lula announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his vice-presidential candidate, reinforcing campaign stability and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market odds to above 50%.

Ronaldo Caiado announces Gilberto Kassab as vice-presidential running mate

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%1%

Ronaldo Caiado announced Gilberto Kassab as his vice-presidential candidate, aiming to strengthen his campaign, but this move failed to significantly improve his polling or market position, which declined afterward.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in second-round matchup

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%

A poll released at the end of June showed incumbent Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and contributing to a rise in his market price while Bolsonaro's declined.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes extends Jair Bolsonaro's humanitarian house arrest

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 26%3%

The Supreme Court justice extended Jair Bolsonaro's house arrest indefinitely on health grounds, limiting his political influence and solidifying Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the main right-wing candidate, affecting market dynamics.

Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff, boosting Lula's odds

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 62%5%

A poll released at the end of June showed incumbent Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and contributing to a rise in his market price from 56.5% to 62%, while Flávio's declined.

BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula leading first round with 42%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%

BTG/Nexus poll released after recent political events showed Lula with a strong lead in the first round and maintaining advantage in second-round scenarios, reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Lula's polling and market odds rise amid voter character debate

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%7%

Political commentary and voter expectations discussions boosted Lula's market price from 49.5% to 56.5%, reinforcing his frontrunner status.

BTG/Nexus poll confirms Lula's lead in first and second rounds

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 48%4%

BTG/Nexus poll showed Lula leading the first round with 42% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 34%, and winning all tested second-round scenarios, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and boosting his market price.

Michelle Bolsonaro softens public feud with Flávio Bolsonaro amid campaign tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly apologized and softened her tone after a public dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting internal tensions within the right-wing bloc and impacting perceptions of the Bolsonaro campaign's unity.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro, sparking internal tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro stepped down as head of PL Mulher after a public feud with Flávio Bolsonaro over party alliances, expressing feeling 'humiliated and mistreated.' This internal dispute caused some market uncertainty about the right-wing bloc's cohesion, though Flávio's market price remained stable.

Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro dial back feud amid campaign tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticized Flávio Bolsonaro, causing internal tensions within the right-wing bloc. Both later softened their tone to reduce political fallout and maintain campaign unity.

Renan Santos officially confirmed as presidential candidate by Mission Party

Renan Santos rises to 8%2%

Renan Santos was officially confirmed as the presidential candidate for the Mission Party, leading to a modest increase in his market price as a notable third candidate.

Flávio Bolsonaro announced as PL's presidential candidate for 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%

Flávio Bolsonaro was announced by his father, ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, as the chosen candidate for the presidency, ending speculation within the right-wing and boosting his market price.

Michelle Bolsonaro releases video criticizing Flávio, fuels family feud

Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video publicly criticizing Flávio, causing a brief internal family dispute that slightly dampened Flávio’s momentum but left Michelle’s market price unchanged at 1 %. The episode coincided with a modest dip in Flávio’s price from 22 % to 21 %.

PoderData poll shows Lula at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in first round

Polling data indicated a tightening race with Lula maintaining a lead but Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground, reflecting increased competition in the market.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro, exposing family tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%2%

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro released a video criticizing her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro, causing divisions within the Bolsonaro camp and negatively impacting her support among key voter groups, reflected in her market price fluctuations.

Michelle Bolsonaro distances herself from Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign amid family tensions

Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro signaled she plans to remain on the sidelines of Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential campaign after a reported disrespectful phone call, contributing to her market odds falling to 3%.

Internal conflict emerges between Flávio Bolsonaro and Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and mistreatment, revealing internal divisions within the Bolsonaro family and the right-wing camp. This controversy likely contributed to Michelle Bolsonaro's market price dropping to zero and affected Flávio's campaign dynamics.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro amid family dispute

Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 5%47%

On June 24, 2026, Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of mistreatment and sidelining her, causing internal tensions within the Bolsonaro camp and affecting her political support and market price.

Public feud between Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro surfaces

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused her stepson Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and mistreatment, revealing internal conflicts within the Bolsonaro family that complicated the right-wing campaign dynamics ahead of the election.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes stepson Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%2%

Michelle Bolsonaro released videos accusing Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and mistreatment, exposing family tensions and negatively impacting Flávio's campaign and market price.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly disputes with Flávio Bolsonaro, weakening her campaign

Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 0%3%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused Flávio Bolsonaro of disrespect and mistreatment, revealing internal family conflicts that contributed to a sharp decline in her market price from 3% to 0%.

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro amid family dispute

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 26%6%

Michelle Bolsonaro publicly accused Flávio Bolsonaro of mistreatment and sidelining her from the presidential campaign, revealing internal family conflicts that affected Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign dynamics and market support.

Michelle Bolsonaro softens public feud with Flavio Bolsonaro amid campaign tensions

Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 3%2%

After a public dispute, Michelle Bolsonaro softened her tone following a formal apology from Flavio Bolsonaro, reflecting internal tensions within the Bolsonaro camp that may affect Michelle's low market support and campaign prospects.

Flávio Bolsonaro launches presidential pre-candidacy, pledges victory with international election monitoring

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%8%

Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential pre-candidacy at CPAC Dallas, promising victory if elections are free and fair, which temporarily boosted his market odds.

Datafolha poll shows Lula maintaining lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in second round

Datafolha poll indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 47% to 43% in a second-round scenario, confirming Lula's consistent advantage and stabilizing his market price while Flávio's support remained steady despite scandals.

Lula maintains lead against Bolsonaro after bank scandal

Despite ongoing scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to a disgraced banker involved in a major fraud scandal, Lula maintained his lead in polls, reinforcing his position as the election frontrunner.

Datafolha poll confirms Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in second round by 4 points

Datafolha poll showed Lula maintaining a 47% to 43% lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a second-round scenario, indicating stable support for Lula despite ongoing controversies affecting the opposition.

Flávio Bolsonaro unveils 'Brazil Without Fear' public security plan

Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 33%4%

Flávio Bolsonaro presented a public security plan proposing to classify Brazilian criminal organizations as narcoterrorist groups, aiming to appeal to conservative voters and strengthen his campaign platform.

Polls show Lula leading first round with Flávio Bolsonaro close behind

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%14%

Recent polls indicated Lula leading with around 40-42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-34%, reflecting a tight race and influencing market prices accordingly.

Flávio Bolsonaro unveils public security plan 'Brazil Without Fear'

Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 26%2%

Flávio Bolsonaro presented a public security plan targeting criminal organizations as narcoterrorists, aiming to appeal to conservative voters concerned about crime, which contributed to fluctuations in his market price.

Lula Urges Trump Not to Interfere in Brazil’s Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 62%6%

Lula publicly called on former US President Trump to stay out of Brazil's election, framing the contest as a sovereign democratic process and reinforcing his position as the incumbent under international scrutiny.

Brazil Supreme Court convicts Eduardo Bolsonaro, barring him from office

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 22%10%

Eduardo Bolsonaro was convicted by Brazil's Supreme Court for coercion related to his father's legal battles, rendering him ineligible for public office for eight years. This legal setback increased pressure on Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign and affected market confidence in the Bolsonaro family's political prospects.

Ronaldo Caiado claims Flávio Bolsonaro lost chance to beat Lula

Ronaldo Caiado dips to 1%4%

Caiado publicly stated that Flávio Bolsonaro lost the ability to defeat Lula, positioning himself as the more competitive right-wing candidate, influencing market perceptions.

Flávio Bolsonaro declared ineligible for 12 years following conviction

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 22%7%

Flávio Bolsonaro was declared ineligible for 12 years due to a conviction related to coercion in the investigation of the 2022–2023 coup plot, severely impacting his candidacy and market confidence in his election chances.

CNT/MDA poll shows Lula extends advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 61%7%

A CNT/MDA poll confirmed Lula's growing lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, reinforcing market confidence in Lula's chances.

Flávio Bolsonaro becomes ineligible due to conviction in coup investigation

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%

On June 16, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro was declared ineligible for 12 years following a conviction related to coercion in the investigation of the 2022–2023 coup plot, impacting his candidacy and market confidence.

Jair Bolsonaro convicted and imprisoned, barred from office until 2060

Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%

Jair Bolsonaro was convicted for his role in the 2022 coup plot, sentenced to 27 years in prison, and declared ineligible for public office until 2060, removing him from the 2026 race and shifting support to his son Flávio.

Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in second-round poll

A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula extending his advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, boosting confidence in Lula's frontrunner status and impacting market prices.

Brazil Supreme Court bars law that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison sentence

A Brazilian judge blocked legislation that might have reduced former President Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence, reinforcing his ineligibility and removing any chance of his political return, which affected the right-wing candidate dynamics.

Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied ahead of election

Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%6%

A poll indicated a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting intense competition and causing market prices for both candidates to converge.

Lula picks Geraldo Alckmin again as running mate for re-election bid

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 50%9%

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his vice-presidential candidate, reinforcing the established ticket and stabilizing Lula's market position.

Camilo Santana receives Paulo Freire medal for educational contributions

Senator and former Education Minister Camilo Santana was honored with the Paulo Freire medal, enhancing his public profile ahead of the election, though his market price remained low.

Poll shows Lula opens six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%

A Quaest poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by six points, reflecting a widening gap that supported Lula's market price increase and indicated challenges for Flávio's campaign.

Lula opens six-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in new poll

Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 23%10%

A Quaest poll showed Lula with a 41% first-round vote intention against Flávio Bolsonaro's 28-34%, widening the gap after the scandal and reflecting Lula's strengthened position in the race.

Lula opens six‑point lead over Flávio in new poll

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%12%

A Datafolha/Quala poll showed Lula opening a six‑point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro. The unexpected lead caused Lula’s market price to jump from 44 % to 56 % (its endpoint) within a few days, while Flávio’s price slipped back to the low‑20s.