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icon for Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
Keuangan·Privates

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

icon for Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
Keuangan·Privates

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?

Anthropic + OpenAI

37% peluang
Polymarket
BARU

Anthropic + OpenAI

37% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Microsoft's market capitalization above $3.5 trillion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 63% implied probability it will exceed the combined valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI by year-end, reflecting its diversified revenue base, Azure AI momentum, and recent earnings-driven gains versus the startups' roughly $1.8 trillion private marks. Anthropic's May Series H round at $965 billion and October IPO target near $2 trillion, alongside OpenAI's $852 billion March raise and late-2026 listing ambitions, introduce upside volatility from public-market multiples and revenue trajectories exceeding $100 billion annualized, yet execution risks, dilution, and post-IPO repricing temper combined upside relative to Microsoft's scale and stability.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$6,506
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Microsoft's market capitalization above $3.5 trillion as of mid-August 2026 underpins the 63% implied probability it will exceed the combined valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI by year-end, reflecting its diversified revenue base, Azure AI momentum, and recent earnings-driven gains versus the startups' roughly $1.8 trillion private marks. Anthropic's May Series H round at $965 billion and October IPO target near $2 trillion, alongside OpenAI's $852 billion March raise and late-2026 listing ambitions, introduce upside volatility from public-market multiples and revenue trajectories exceeding $100 billion annualized, yet execution risks, dilution, and post-IPO repricing temper combined upside relative to Microsoft's scale and stability.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$6,506
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://poly.havingsomuch.fun/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic and OpenAI's combined valuation is equal to Microsoft's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" di 37%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 37¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 37% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada May 19, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" adalah "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" di 37%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 37% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.