France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces entrenched legislative fragmentation ahead of the 2027 presidential election, driving the 66% market-implied probability that no full national budget passes by December 31. With opposition parties from the hard left and far right signaling resistance to deficit-reduction measures targeting around 4.9-5% of GDP, lawmakers are positioning for electoral advantage rather than compromise, echoing the 2025 failure that required a special rollover law. Weak Q2 2026 growth, elevated borrowing costs above 4%, and rising debt service add fiscal strain, while Article 49.3 invocations or emergency provisions remain likely workarounds. Key catalysts include the October budget submission deadline and potential no-confidence motions that could force concessions or further delays.