China's military leadership purges and persistent capability gaps for sustained amphibious operations continue to anchor trader consensus against an invasion by year-end, as Beijing prioritizes gray-zone coercion through expanded coast guard patrols, joint blockade drills, and air-sea normalization around Taiwan rather than full-scale assault. Taiwan's annual defense assessment and recent exercises underscore these limits while highlighting Beijing's focus on lessons from other conflicts to refine encirclement tactics without triggering immediate war. With only months remaining, the compressed timeline, combined with U.S. diplomatic engagement and Taiwan's asymmetric enhancements, reinforces the low probability. Late developments such as a Taiwanese independence declaration, abrupt shifts in U.S. policy, or internal Chinese instability could still alter the outlook.