Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाडेन्यूब नदी सामान्य स्तर पर कब लौटेगी?
डेन्यूब नदी सामान्य स्तर पर कब लौटेगी?
1 - 14 सितंबर, 2026 20%
1 सितंबर, 2026 से पहले 9%
1 नवंबर, 2026 तक वापस नहीं आती 9%
15 - 30 सितंबर, 2026 0
नया
नया
1 सित, 2026
1 सितंबर, 2026 से पहले
9%
1 - 14 सितंबर, 2026
20%
15 - 30 सितंबर, 2026
37%
1 अक्टूबर - 31 अक्टूबर, 2026
42%
1 नवंबर, 2026 तक वापस नहीं आती
9%
1 - 14 सितंबर, 2026 20%
1 सितंबर, 2026 से पहले 9%
1 नवंबर, 2026 तक वापस नहीं आती 9%
15 - 30 सितंबर, 2026 0
नया
नया
1 सित, 2026
1 सितंबर, 2026 से पहले
$192 वॉल्यूम
9%
1 - 14 सितंबर, 2026
$119 वॉल्यूम
20%
15 - 30 सितंबर, 2026
$434 वॉल्यूम
37%
1 अक्टूबर - 31 अक्टूबर, 2026
$293 वॉल्यूम
42%
1 नवंबर, 2026 तक वापस नहीं आती
$114 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,153समाप्ति तिथि
1 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,153समाप्ति तिथि
1 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Prolonged drought and an extended summer heatwave have driven the Danube to record low water levels across multiple gauges in August 2026, with Budapest readings hitting historic lows and disrupting shipping, hydropower, and irrigation. This situation stems from minimal recent precipitation and high temperatures across Central and Eastern Europe, keeping levels well below seasonal norms. Trader consensus shows closely matched probabilities across early-to-mid September and October windows because forecasts remain uncertain on the timing and volume of autumn rainfall needed for recovery. Seasonal weather patterns, upstream snowmelt absence, and any late-August precipitation shifts could separate outcomes, while sustained dry conditions support later resolution or non-return by November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न