**Ahsanul Hafiz leads trader pricing at 67% for the September 3, 2026, Ontario provincial by-election in Scarborough Southwest, ahead of NDP nominee Fatima Shaban at 31%, with all other candidates (including PC’s Noor Tarun, Green’s Mark Bekkering, and New Blue’s Chris Rees) at or below 1%.** The riding has been held by the NDP since 2018. It became vacant after incumbent Doly Begum resigned in February 2026 to win the concurrent federal by-election as a Liberal. Hafiz secured the provincial Liberal nomination in May after a competitive ranked-ballot contest against high-profile MP Nate Erskine-Smith, with the result upheld on appeal. Shaban won the NDP nomination earlier in the spring as a local tenant advocate and community organizer. The PCs nominated family physician Noor Tarun in July, while minor-party candidates were confirmed by mid-August when nominations closed. Traders appear to price in a Liberal advantage driven by the recent federal result in the overlapping riding, the absence of a strong PC organization on the ground, and limited time for other parties to close the gap before advance polls begin August 26. The by-election occurs alongside two others, with mail and advance voting options already open. No public polling has shifted the implied probabilities in recent weeks.