Christian Schmidt’s resignation in May 2026, followed by the end of his mandate on 1 July and the immediate appointment of Louis J. Crishock as acting High Representative, has created substantial uncertainty over whether the Peace Implementation Council will name a permanent successor before year-end. Divisions within the PIC Steering Board, particularly differing U.S. and European positions on the Office of the High Representative’s future role and possible closure, underpin the 79.5% market price on “No HR in 2026.” Crishock’s acting status and low single-digit odds for other named diplomats reflect the absence of any confirmed nomination process or consensus candidate, while the near-even pricing across dozens of other individuals signals limited trader conviction in any specific appointment occurring within the resolution window.