North Dakota State’s dominant FBS debut and early power ranking lead position it as a frontrunner in the reconfigured Mountain West, where the championship pits the two teams with the highest conference win percentage on December 4. UNLV, Hawaii, and New Mexico—preseason favorites—opened with nonconference losses that highlighted offensive line and quarterback concerns, while Air Force and Wyoming prepare for key early tests. Recent nonconference results, injury updates such as New Mexico’s season-ending QB absence, and upcoming conference openers will quickly reshape implied probabilities, with home/away splits and rest advantages likely to influence the tight race among multiple contenders.