**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature in the low 80s°F for Dallas on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around the 80–83°F bins.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and private models shows mostly clear skies, light southerly to southeasterly winds of 5–10 mph, and dew points in the mid-60s to low-70s°F, which limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows elevated. Recent days have featured similar conditions, with actual lows in the upper 70s to low 80s amid a persistent heat pattern and no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture to enhance cooling. The near-even split between the 80–81°F and 82–83°F outcomes reflects minor differences across forecast models and observation sites (e.g., DFW Airport versus urban stations), where urban heat island effects and exact wind speeds can shift the minimum by 1–2°F. Historical climatology shows a typical late-August low near 75°F, but the current warm anomaly—driven by strong high pressure and above-average soil moisture deficits—supports the elevated market-implied probabilities for the upper bins. Traders appear focused on the next model runs and any last-minute adjustments to boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover before the overnight period resolves the market.