Adilet emerged as Kazakhstan’s dominant pro-presidential force after the former ruling Amanat party merged into it in mid-June 2026, consolidating institutional support and organizational resources ahead of the August 23 Kurultai elections. The new 145-seat single-chamber legislature requires 73 seats for a majority, and Adilet registered the largest party list while other registered parties—Aq Jol, Auyl, Respublica, and smaller groups—remain fragmented. President Tokayev’s backing and the restructured electoral rules under the post-referendum constitution further position Adilet to capture a commanding share of proportional representation seats. Traders view these structural advantages as decisive, producing the current 92% implied probability that Adilet secures at least 73 mandates.