Developing El Niño conditions, now forecast with high confidence to emerge by mid-2026 and strengthen through year-end, represent the main upward driver for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies, building on the long-term warming trend. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO place the 2026 annual range at 1.3–1.9 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of ocean-atmosphere coupling and any residual cooling from the prior La Niña transition. Model consensus on Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures and historical analogs for moderate El Niño onset support this central band, while stronger events or rapid intensification could push outcomes higher before June data finalize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 29%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
30%
1.10–1.14ºC
29%
1.15–1.19ºC
37%
1.20–1.24ºC
29%
1.25–1.29ºC
25%
>1.29ºC
4%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 29%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
नया
नया
30 जून, 2026
<1.10ºC
$70 वॉल्यूम
30%
1.10–1.14ºC
$61 वॉल्यूम
29%
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 वॉल्यूम
37%
1.20–1.24ºC
$391 वॉल्यूम
29%
1.25–1.29ºC
$195 वॉल्यूम
25%
>1.29ºC
$389 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now forecast with high confidence to emerge by mid-2026 and strengthen through year-end, represent the main upward driver for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies, building on the long-term warming trend. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO place the 2026 annual range at 1.3–1.9 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of ocean-atmosphere coupling and any residual cooling from the prior La Niña transition. Model consensus on Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures and historical analogs for moderate El Niño onset support this central band, while stronger events or rapid intensification could push outcomes higher before June data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,162समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now forecast with high confidence to emerge by mid-2026 and strengthen through year-end, represent the main upward driver for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies, building on the long-term warming trend. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO place the 2026 annual range at 1.3–1.9 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of ocean-atmosphere coupling and any residual cooling from the prior La Niña transition. Model consensus on Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures and historical analogs for moderate El Niño onset support this central band, while stronger events or rapid intensification could push outcomes higher before June data finalize.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$1,162समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions, now forecast with high confidence to emerge by mid-2026 and strengthen through year-end, represent the main upward driver for June global mean near-surface temperature anomalies, building on the long-term warming trend. Official outlooks from NOAA and the WMO place the 2026 annual range at 1.3–1.9 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 1.10–1.24 °C reflects uncertainty in the exact timing of ocean-atmosphere coupling and any residual cooling from the prior La Niña transition. Model consensus on Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperatures and historical analogs for moderate El Niño onset support this central band, while stronger events or rapid intensification could push outcomes higher before June data finalize.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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