Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with a strong August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78% as of September 11. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted market-implied odds toward an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting yields across the curve. With the policy rate still at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming retail sales and any last-minute data for signs that could alter the tightening path before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$18,779 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
4.90%
41%
4.83%
62%
$18,779 वॉल्यूम
4.90%
$1,659 वॉल्यूम
41%
4.83%
$4,534 वॉल्यूम
62%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with a strong August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78% as of September 11. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted market-implied odds toward an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting yields across the curve. With the policy rate still at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming retail sales and any last-minute data for signs that could alter the tightening path before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$18,779समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with a strong August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78% as of September 11. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted market-implied odds toward an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting yields across the curve. With the policy rate still at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming retail sales and any last-minute data for signs that could alter the tightening path before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
वॉल्यूम
$18,779समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with core prices rising 0.3% month-over-month and headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with a strong August jobs report showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains, have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.78% as of September 11. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4% and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted market-implied odds toward an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting yields across the curve. With the policy rate still at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming retail sales and any last-minute data for signs that could alter the tightening path before month-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न