Persistent inflation pressures above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforced by supply disruptions and higher energy prices, remain the dominant driver of market-implied odds for a possible 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50%–3.75%, with the median dot-plot projection from June now at 3.8% by year-end after nine of 19 participants signaled support for at least one increase. Three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have kept a hike priced near 50% on futures and prediction markets, though softer July employment and cooling inflation readings have narrowed the gap with a hold. Traders will focus on the next CPI, PCE, and jobs reports, plus any post-Jackson Hole guidance, for signals on whether the labor market or inflation trajectory shifts the balance before mid-September.