Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average headline rate for 2026 amid persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any deposit facility rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% and the July hold, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance prioritizes returning inflation—including upwardly revised core measures—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or modestly tighter policy through December, aligning with official guidance that avoids pre-committing to easing. A sharper energy price reversal or pronounced growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
9% संभावना
$31,480 वॉल्यूम
$31,480 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
9% संभावना
$31,480 वॉल्यूम
$31,480 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average headline rate for 2026 amid persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any deposit facility rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% and the July hold, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance prioritizes returning inflation—including upwardly revised core measures—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or modestly tighter policy through December, aligning with official guidance that avoids pre-committing to easing. A sharper energy price reversal or pronounced growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$31,480समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average headline rate for 2026 amid persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any deposit facility rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% and the July hold, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance prioritizes returning inflation—including upwardly revised core measures—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or modestly tighter policy through December, aligning with official guidance that avoids pre-committing to easing. A sharper energy price reversal or pronounced growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$31,480समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, with ECB staff projecting a 3.0% average headline rate for 2026 amid persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments, underpins the 91% market-implied probability against any deposit facility rate cut this year. Following the June 25-basis-point hike to 2.25% and the July hold, the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance prioritizes returning inflation—including upwardly revised core measures—to the 2% target, supported by resilient labor markets and 0.8% projected GDP growth. Traders price steady or modestly tighter policy through December, aligning with official guidance that avoids pre-committing to easing. A sharper energy price reversal or pronounced growth contraction could reopen cut discussions at later meetings, though current pricing assigns limited odds to such shifts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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