Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$35,006 वॉल्यूम
$35,006 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
96%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
3%
$35,006 वॉल्यूम
$35,006 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$26,284 वॉल्यूम
96%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$8,722 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,006समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$35,006समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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