Recent data show Russia's annual inflation rising to 6.3% in August amid elevated fuel and transport costs from supply disruptions, while underlying price pressures accelerated to a 5–6% annualized pace. The Bank of Russia responded by holding its key rate steady at 14% on September 11 after ten straight cuts, citing increased price pressures, moderate third-quarter growth, and risks from fiscal expansion. Officials expect full-year inflation of 6–7% before returning to the 4% target in 2027. Traders assign a slim majority probability to no change at the October 23 meeting, reflecting caution over these pro-inflationary factors, while a near-even chance remains for a modest cut if growth concerns intensify and temporary supply shocks ease. An increase appears remote given the established easing trajectory and official signals favoring measured policy.