The Bank of Russia’s September 11 hold at 14%—its first pause after ten consecutive cuts—has shaped trader views for the October 23 decision by highlighting persistent pro-inflationary risks from Ukrainian strikes on refineries, which drove fuel shortages, higher transport costs, and underlying price growth to a 5–6% annualized pace. Annual inflation reached 6.3% by early September, prompting the central bank to flag second-round effects and warn that fiscal expansion could require tighter policy than its baseline. With the economy expanding at a moderate pace in Q3 and the next budget details pending, the market assigns a narrow lead to no change while leaving room for a further modest reduction if supply shocks ease and inflation expectations stabilize before year-end.