Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice through impeachment despite dozens of prior petitions, most targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes sharply narrowed the process by limiting initiation primarily to the Prosecutor General’s office and requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, effectively suspending key provisions of the 1950 impeachment statute. Senate leadership has consistently declined to advance complaints, and the current congressional alignment aligned with the Lula administration provides little impetus for action in the remaining months of 2026. These institutional and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.6% trader consensus on “No.” A sudden reversal would require an extraordinary political crisis, a change in Senate leadership or majority, or an unexpected PGR initiative within the narrow window before December 31, 2026.