The wide-open Republican primary for 2028, more than two years before the first contests, drives the 72.5% No probability on this market. Multiple contenders, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are actively positioning for the nomination while President Trump has repeatedly called early speculation premature and emphasized the party's deep bench of talent. Trump remains ineligible for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, and he has not issued a qualifying endorsement. Historical patterns show that even strong party favorites often encounter primary competition or general-election challenges, compounded by uncertainties over midterm results, economic conditions, and Democratic contenders. Traders view these factors as significant barriers to any single early pick prevailing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour28% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 nov. 2028
28% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 nov. 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The wide-open Republican primary for 2028, more than two years before the first contests, drives the 72.5% No probability on this market. Multiple contenders, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are actively positioning for the nomination while President Trump has repeatedly called early speculation premature and emphasized the party's deep bench of talent. Trump remains ineligible for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, and he has not issued a qualifying endorsement. Historical patterns show that even strong party favorites often encounter primary competition or general-election challenges, compounded by uncertainties over midterm results, economic conditions, and Democratic contenders. Traders view these factors as significant barriers to any single early pick prevailing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Marché ouvert : Jul 30, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$1,029Date de fin
7 nov. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 11:15 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The wide-open Republican primary for 2028, more than two years before the first contests, drives the 72.5% No probability on this market. Multiple contenders, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are actively positioning for the nomination while President Trump has repeatedly called early speculation premature and emphasized the party's deep bench of talent. Trump remains ineligible for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, and he has not issued a qualifying endorsement. Historical patterns show that even strong party favorites often encounter primary competition or general-election challenges, compounded by uncertainties over midterm results, economic conditions, and Democratic contenders. Traders view these factors as significant barriers to any single early pick prevailing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election:
An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election.
An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify.
The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support.
An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred.
If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement.
If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself.
Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$1,029Date de fin
7 nov. 2028Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 11:15 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The wide-open Republican primary for 2028, more than two years before the first contests, drives the 72.5% No probability on this market. Multiple contenders, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are actively positioning for the nomination while President Trump has repeatedly called early speculation premature and emphasized the party's deep bench of talent. Trump remains ineligible for a third term under the 22nd Amendment, and he has not issued a qualifying endorsement. Historical patterns show that even strong party favorites often encounter primary competition or general-election challenges, compounded by uncertainties over midterm results, economic conditions, and Democratic contenders. Traders view these factors as significant barriers to any single early pick prevailing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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