The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
51% chance
$12,170 Vol.
$12,170 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
51% chance
$12,170 Vol.
$12,170 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Marché ouvert : May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,170Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,170Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after House approval of four articles alleging misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, graft, and threats against President Marcos, has created a closely balanced contest around the two-thirds conviction threshold of 16 votes. Shifting Senate leadership, including the June 2026 election of Sherwin Gatchalian as president following earlier Duterte-allied influence, combined with bloc divisions and procedural challenges upheld or left intact by Supreme Court rulings, has left trader consensus near even on acquittal. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace and strength of prosecution evidence versus defense presentations over the extended hearing schedule into 2027, any changes in senator alignments amid ongoing political rivalries between the Marcos and Duterte camps, or developments affecting senator participation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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