U.S. policy has centered on interim arrangements with Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration consistently prioritizing stability and oil-sector continuity over elevating opposition figure María Corina Machado. Public statements from President Trump have downplayed Machado's viability as leader, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described any transition as premature amid absent opposition figures and ongoing negotiations. Machado remains in exile, with U.S. officials reportedly discouraging her return to avoid unrest, and no diplomatic steps toward formal recognition have occurred through mid-2026. This sustained approach underpins the 96.5% "No" consensus. Late shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals, scheduled elections, or major diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy has centered on interim arrangements with Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration consistently prioritizing stability and oil-sector continuity over elevating opposition figure María Corina Machado. Public statements from President Trump have downplayed Machado's viability as leader, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described any transition as premature amid absent opposition figures and ongoing negotiations. Machado remains in exile, with U.S. officials reportedly discouraging her return to avoid unrest, and no diplomatic steps toward formal recognition have occurred through mid-2026. This sustained approach underpins the 96.5% "No" consensus. Late shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals, scheduled elections, or major diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,084Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.U.S. policy has centered on interim arrangements with Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration consistently prioritizing stability and oil-sector continuity over elevating opposition figure María Corina Machado. Public statements from President Trump have downplayed Machado's viability as leader, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described any transition as premature amid absent opposition figures and ongoing negotiations. Machado remains in exile, with U.S. officials reportedly discouraging her return to avoid unrest, and no diplomatic steps toward formal recognition have occurred through mid-2026. This sustained approach underpins the 96.5% "No" consensus. Late shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals, scheduled elections, or major diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,084Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. policy has centered on interim arrangements with Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration consistently prioritizing stability and oil-sector continuity over elevating opposition figure María Corina Machado. Public statements from President Trump have downplayed Machado's viability as leader, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described any transition as premature amid absent opposition figures and ongoing negotiations. Machado remains in exile, with U.S. officials reportedly discouraging her return to avoid unrest, and no diplomatic steps toward formal recognition have occurred through mid-2026. This sustained approach underpins the 96.5% "No" consensus. Late shifts could still arise from abrupt policy reversals, scheduled elections, or major diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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