Texas's 2026 Senate race between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico remains one of the cycle's most competitive contests, with recent polling averages showing the candidates within a few points of each other. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated Republican support but highlighted internal party divisions, while Talarico's primary win positioned him to capitalize on suburban and Hispanic voter shifts that have narrowed the state's partisan gap. High campaign spending, turnout dynamics in key metro areas, and national political headwinds continue to compress expected victory margins, aligning with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to outcomes of 6 points or less for either side. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or further tighten the range before November voting concludes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 0-3 % 39%
Républicain 3-6 % 37%
Démocrate 9-12 % 37%
Démocrate 3-6 % 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 12 %+
8%
Républicain 9-12 %
13%
Républicain 6-9 %
19%
Républicain 3-6 %
37%
Républicain 0-3 %
34%
Démocrate 0-3 %
39%
Démocrate 3-6 %
35%
Démocrate 6-9%
35%
Démocrate 9-12 %
37%
Démocrate 12 %+
18%
Démocrate 0-3 % 39%
Républicain 3-6 % 37%
Démocrate 9-12 % 37%
Démocrate 3-6 % 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 12 %+
$0 Vol.
8%
Républicain 9-12 %
$0 Vol.
13%
Républicain 6-9 %
$0 Vol.
19%
Républicain 3-6 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 0-3 %
$0 Vol.
34%
Démocrate 0-3 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Démocrate 3-6 %
$0 Vol.
35%
Démocrate 6-9%
$0 Vol.
35%
Démocrate 9-12 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 12 %+
$49 Vol.
18%
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas's 2026 Senate race between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico remains one of the cycle's most competitive contests, with recent polling averages showing the candidates within a few points of each other. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated Republican support but highlighted internal party divisions, while Talarico's primary win positioned him to capitalize on suburban and Hispanic voter shifts that have narrowed the state's partisan gap. High campaign spending, turnout dynamics in key metro areas, and national political headwinds continue to compress expected victory margins, aligning with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to outcomes of 6 points or less for either side. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or further tighten the range before November voting concludes.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ET
Volume
$49Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas's 2026 Senate race between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico remains one of the cycle's most competitive contests, with recent polling averages showing the candidates within a few points of each other. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated Republican support but highlighted internal party divisions, while Talarico's primary win positioned him to capitalize on suburban and Hispanic voter shifts that have narrowed the state's partisan gap. High campaign spending, turnout dynamics in key metro areas, and national political headwinds continue to compress expected victory margins, aligning with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to outcomes of 6 points or less for either side. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or further tighten the range before November voting concludes.
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2026, 2:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Texas's 2026 Senate race between Republican nominee Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico remains one of the cycle's most competitive contests, with recent polling averages showing the candidates within a few points of each other. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn consolidated Republican support but highlighted internal party divisions, while Talarico's primary win positioned him to capitalize on suburban and Hispanic voter shifts that have narrowed the state's partisan gap. High campaign spending, turnout dynamics in key metro areas, and national political headwinds continue to compress expected victory margins, aligning with market pricing that assigns the highest probabilities to outcomes of 6 points or less for either side. Late-cycle developments such as additional polling releases, debate performances, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could widen or further tighten the range before November voting concludes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur du Texas en 2026 avec une avance de 6 à 9 % ?
45%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 18%-21%?
40%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 0%-5%?
43%
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