The even 50% odds reflect Databricks' recent $190 billion Series L-2 close in August—up sharply from $134 billion in February—driven by $7 billion-plus annualized revenue run-rate growing over 80% year-over-year on AI data platform demand, balanced against Stripe's February $159 billion tender and August acquisition of OpenRouter for roughly $8 billion to advance agentic commerce and AI model routing. Stripe's secondary-market estimates near $177–200 billion and steady 34% payment volume growth provide comparable momentum in fintech infrastructure, while both companies leverage the broader AI ecosystem without imminent IPOs. New funding announcements, revenue updates, or product milestones in the coming weeks could break the deadlock by highlighting sustained execution or competitive positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPricing History
Powered by
Stripe
Databricks
Pricing History
Powered by
Stripe
Databricks
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.The even 50% odds reflect Databricks' recent $190 billion Series L-2 close in August—up sharply from $134 billion in February—driven by $7 billion-plus annualized revenue run-rate growing over 80% year-over-year on AI data platform demand, balanced against Stripe's February $159 billion tender and August acquisition of OpenRouter for roughly $8 billion to advance agentic commerce and AI model routing. Stripe's secondary-market estimates near $177–200 billion and steady 34% payment volume growth provide comparable momentum in fintech infrastructure, while both companies leverage the broader AI ecosystem without imminent IPOs. New funding announcements, revenue updates, or product milestones in the coming weeks could break the deadlock by highlighting sustained execution or competitive positioning.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 6:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to the listed company with the larger percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.The even 50% odds reflect Databricks' recent $190 billion Series L-2 close in August—up sharply from $134 billion in February—driven by $7 billion-plus annualized revenue run-rate growing over 80% year-over-year on AI data platform demand, balanced against Stripe's February $159 billion tender and August acquisition of OpenRouter for roughly $8 billion to advance agentic commerce and AI model routing. Stripe's secondary-market estimates near $177–200 billion and steady 34% payment volume growth provide comparable momentum in fintech infrastructure, while both companies leverage the broader AI ecosystem without imminent IPOs. New funding announcements, revenue updates, or product milestones in the coming weeks could break the deadlock by highlighting sustained execution or competitive positioning.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger percentage increase in private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), from the last trading day prior to the specified month (starting valuation) to last trading day of the specified month (ending valuation).
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified month, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the specified date, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2026-08-31&view=change&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0%2Ccompany-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' unrounded percentage increase in valuation is equal to Stripe's percentage increase in valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Volume
$0Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 6:53 PM ETThe even 50% odds reflect Databricks' recent $190 billion Series L-2 close in August—up sharply from $134 billion in February—driven by $7 billion-plus annualized revenue run-rate growing over 80% year-over-year on AI data platform demand, balanced against Stripe's February $159 billion tender and August acquisition of OpenRouter for roughly $8 billion to advance agentic commerce and AI model routing. Stripe's secondary-market estimates near $177–200 billion and steady 34% payment volume growth provide comparable momentum in fintech infrastructure, while both companies leverage the broader AI ecosystem without imminent IPOs. New funding announcements, revenue updates, or product milestones in the coming weeks could break the deadlock by highlighting sustained execution or competitive positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes