Strong opening weekend performance and rapid early accumulation have anchored trader sentiment around sub-$900 million domestic totals by August 31, with the <900m outcome holding a 53% implied probability. The film launched July 31 to a record $360 million domestic debut and quickly surpassed $550 million in its first week, yet second-weekend estimates near $143 million reflect typical superhero drop-offs that limit further acceleration. Historical legs for similar MCU entries, combined with August competition and the short remaining theatrical window, keep higher brackets like 900-920m at 35.5% while outcomes above $1 billion stay in single digits. Key upcoming catalysts include the next few weekend updates and any late-summer holdover strength that could shift momentum before the August 31 cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"Spider-Man : Brand New Day" total brut national d'ici le 31 août ? (Frappes plus élevées)
"Spider-Man : Brand New Day" total brut national d'ici le 31 août ? (Frappes plus élevées)
<900m 51%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 18%
920 - 940m 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<900m
51%
900 - 920m
42%
920 - 940m
12%
940 - 960m
5%
960 - 980m
18%
980 - 1000m
7%
1000 - 1020m
17%
1020 - 1040m
18%
1040 - 1060m
16%
1060 - 1080m
10%
1080m+
8%
<900m 51%
900 - 920m 22%
1020 - 1040m 18%
920 - 940m 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
<900m
$165 Vol.
51%
900 - 920m
$65 Vol.
42%
920 - 940m
$304 Vol.
12%
940 - 960m
$794 Vol.
5%
960 - 980m
$45 Vol.
18%
980 - 1000m
$372 Vol.
7%
1000 - 1020m
$86 Vol.
17%
1020 - 1040m
$30 Vol.
18%
1040 - 1060m
$45 Vol.
16%
1060 - 1080m
$57 Vol.
10%
1080m+
$51 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong opening weekend performance and rapid early accumulation have anchored trader sentiment around sub-$900 million domestic totals by August 31, with the <900m outcome holding a 53% implied probability. The film launched July 31 to a record $360 million domestic debut and quickly surpassed $550 million in its first week, yet second-weekend estimates near $143 million reflect typical superhero drop-offs that limit further acceleration. Historical legs for similar MCU entries, combined with August competition and the short remaining theatrical window, keep higher brackets like 900-920m at 35.5% while outcomes above $1 billion stay in single digits. Key upcoming catalysts include the next few weekend updates and any late-summer holdover strength that could shift momentum before the August 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,014Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong opening weekend performance and rapid early accumulation have anchored trader sentiment around sub-$900 million domestic totals by August 31, with the <900m outcome holding a 53% implied probability. The film launched July 31 to a record $360 million domestic debut and quickly surpassed $550 million in its first week, yet second-weekend estimates near $143 million reflect typical superhero drop-offs that limit further acceleration. Historical legs for similar MCU entries, combined with August competition and the short remaining theatrical window, keep higher brackets like 900-920m at 35.5% while outcomes above $1 billion stay in single digits. Key upcoming catalysts include the next few weekend updates and any late-summer holdover strength that could shift momentum before the August 31 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,014Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong opening weekend performance and rapid early accumulation have anchored trader sentiment around sub-$900 million domestic totals by August 31, with the <900m outcome holding a 53% implied probability. The film launched July 31 to a record $360 million domestic debut and quickly surpassed $550 million in its first week, yet second-weekend estimates near $143 million reflect typical superhero drop-offs that limit further acceleration. Historical legs for similar MCU entries, combined with August competition and the short remaining theatrical window, keep higher brackets like 900-920m at 35.5% while outcomes above $1 billion stay in single digits. Key upcoming catalysts include the next few weekend updates and any late-summer holdover strength that could shift momentum before the August 31 cutoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le total des recettes nationales pour Spider-Man : Brand New Day atteindra-t-il au moins 900 millions d'ici le 31 août ?
63%
Oui
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m?
100%
Le box-office du deuxième week-end de « Spider-Man : Un nouveau jour » sera-t-il compris entre 140 et 150 millions ?
94%
Oui
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