Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31, 2026, establishing the biggest domestic debut ever and propelling it past $500 million in its first week through exceptional presales, IMAX and premium large format demand, and strong Tom Holland-driven audience interest. Current tracking and Friday numbers point to a sophomore frame near $143 million, a roughly 60% drop that aligns with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale while still delivering one of the strongest second weekends on record. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$180 million outcome because the film’s momentum, while dominant, follows predictable blockbuster decay curves rather than the outsized holds needed to push totals dramatically higher. An upset into the $180 million-plus range would require unusually robust word-of-mouth retention or unexpected competition weakness, neither of which appears in verified tracking or early weekend data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 99.8%
180-190M <1%
190-200m <1%
200-210M <1%
$60,476 Vol.
$60,476 Vol.
9 août 2026
<180m
100%
180-190M
<1%
190-200m
<1%
200-210M
<1%
210-220 millions
<1%
220 M+
<1%
<180m 99.8%
180-190M <1%
190-200m <1%
200-210M <1%
$60,476 Vol.
$60,476 Vol.
9 août 2026
<180m
$41,098 Vol.
100%
180-190M
$5,434 Vol.
<1%
190-200m
$4,010 Vol.
<1%
200-210M
$1,936 Vol.
<1%
210-220 millions
$3,503 Vol.
<1%
220 M+
$4,495 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31, 2026, establishing the biggest domestic debut ever and propelling it past $500 million in its first week through exceptional presales, IMAX and premium large format demand, and strong Tom Holland-driven audience interest. Current tracking and Friday numbers point to a sophomore frame near $143 million, a roughly 60% drop that aligns with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale while still delivering one of the strongest second weekends on record. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$180 million outcome because the film’s momentum, while dominant, follows predictable blockbuster decay curves rather than the outsized holds needed to push totals dramatically higher. An upset into the $180 million-plus range would require unusually robust word-of-mouth retention or unexpected competition weakness, neither of which appears in verified tracking or early weekend data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$60,476Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31, 2026, establishing the biggest domestic debut ever and propelling it past $500 million in its first week through exceptional presales, IMAX and premium large format demand, and strong Tom Holland-driven audience interest. Current tracking and Friday numbers point to a sophomore frame near $143 million, a roughly 60% drop that aligns with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale while still delivering one of the strongest second weekends on record. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$180 million outcome because the film’s momentum, while dominant, follows predictable blockbuster decay curves rather than the outsized holds needed to push totals dramatically higher. An upset into the $180 million-plus range would require unusually robust word-of-mouth retention or unexpected competition weakness, neither of which appears in verified tracking or early weekend data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$60,476Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31, 2026, establishing the biggest domestic debut ever and propelling it past $500 million in its first week through exceptional presales, IMAX and premium large format demand, and strong Tom Holland-driven audience interest. Current tracking and Friday numbers point to a sophomore frame near $143 million, a roughly 60% drop that aligns with historical patterns for tentpoles of this scale while still delivering one of the strongest second weekends on record. Trader consensus heavily favors the sub-$180 million outcome because the film’s momentum, while dominant, follows predictable blockbuster decay curves rather than the outsized holds needed to push totals dramatically higher. An upset into the $180 million-plus range would require unusually robust word-of-mouth retention or unexpected competition weakness, neither of which appears in verified tracking or early weekend data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le box-office du deuxième week-end de « Spider-Man : Un nouveau jour » sera-t-il compris entre 140 et 150 millions ?
94%
Oui
Le total des recettes nationales pour Spider-Man : Brand New Day atteindra-t-il au moins 900 millions d'ici le 31 août ?
63%
Oui
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
52%
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