The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping views on insolvency timing, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032 and the combined OASDI funds in the third quarter of 2034. At those points, incoming payroll taxes and other revenue would cover roughly 78-83 percent of scheduled benefits absent congressional intervention. The outlook worsened modestly from the prior year due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus revenue effects from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. No major reform legislation has advanced since the report, leaving the long-term actuarial shortfall at 4.42 percent of taxable payroll and keeping attention on whether lawmakers will address the gap before reserves run low.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSécurité sociale insolvable par... ?
31 décembre 2027
11%
31 décembre 2028
17%
$394 Vol.
31 décembre 2027
11%
31 décembre 2028
17%
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping views on insolvency timing, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032 and the combined OASDI funds in the third quarter of 2034. At those points, incoming payroll taxes and other revenue would cover roughly 78-83 percent of scheduled benefits absent congressional intervention. The outlook worsened modestly from the prior year due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus revenue effects from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. No major reform legislation has advanced since the report, leaving the long-term actuarial shortfall at 4.42 percent of taxable payroll and keeping attention on whether lawmakers will address the gap before reserves run low.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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