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icon for Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ?

Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ?

icon for Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ?

Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ?

NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2028
Polymarket

$394 Vol.

Polymarket

31 décembre 2027

$349 Vol.

11%

31 décembre 2028

$45 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping views on insolvency timing, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032 and the combined OASDI funds in the third quarter of 2034. At those points, incoming payroll taxes and other revenue would cover roughly 78-83 percent of scheduled benefits absent congressional intervention. The outlook worsened modestly from the prior year due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus revenue effects from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. No major reform legislation has advanced since the report, leaving the long-term actuarial shortfall at 4.42 percent of taxable payroll and keeping attention on whether lawmakers will address the gap before reserves run low.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394
Date de fin
1 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report remains the dominant factor shaping views on insolvency timing, projecting the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund reserves will deplete in the fourth quarter of 2032 and the combined OASDI funds in the third quarter of 2034. At those points, incoming payroll taxes and other revenue would cover roughly 78-83 percent of scheduled benefits absent congressional intervention. The outlook worsened modestly from the prior year due to lower fertility and immigration assumptions plus revenue effects from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. No major reform legislation has advanced since the report, leaving the long-term actuarial shortfall at 4.42 percent of taxable payroll and keeping attention on whether lawmakers will address the gap before reserves run low.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394
Date de fin
1 janv. 2029
Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre 2028 » à 17%, suivi de « 31 décembre 2027 » à 11%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 17¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 17% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 9, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ? » est « 31 décembre 2028 » à 17%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 17% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 décembre 2027 » à 11%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Sécurité sociale insolvable par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.